April 13, 2017 | Author: Adrian Sharp | Category: N/A
1 UNRATED CORPORATE BOND CHARTBOOK EUR 69bn unrated corporate bond index volume from 224 issuers Munich, 1 September 215...
UNRATED CORPORATE BOND CHARTBOOK EUR 69bn unrated corporate bond index volume from 224 issuers
Munich, 1 September 2015
CONTENTS
2
SUMMARY
3
PRIMARY MARKET
4
MARKET OVERVIEW
16
MARKET DATA
33
BLOOMBERG DRSK
47
COUNTRIES OVERVIEW
57
APPENDIX
63
SUMMARY Summary
Over the last month, our unrated corporate bond (CB) index (euro-denominated fixed-coupon bonds of non-financial issuers with an outstanding amount of EUR ≥50mn and time-to-maturity [workout date] ≥1 year) widened by 6% to 242bp compared to a spread widening for the iBoxx EUR Non-Financials BBB index of 14% to 110bp and the iBoxx EUR HY Non-Financials BB index of 8% to 331bp. The volatility and spread level demonstrates the crossover character of the unrated CB universe. The modified duration of 3.7 years is somewhat lower than the IG index (5.4Y) and the HY index (4.1Y). Index issuance in August 2015 was only two bonds of a total of EUR 280mn. The index size increased to EUR 69.0bn from EUR 63.5bn yoy, and from EUR 68.9bn a month earlier. The number of issuers remained rather stable at 224 compared to 222 a month earlier. In 2015, there are around EUR 1.3bn in bond maturities left. In 2016-18, there will be approximately EUR 10bn in bond maturities annually. In the year to date, the average coupon of issuance declined to 3.3% from 3.4% in 2014, although the average time to maturity of issuance increased to 6.5 years from 6.2 years in 2014. In YTD 2015, the average volume per issue increased to EUR 273mn from EUR 206mn in 2014. 73% of the YTD issuance has come from German, French, Spanish and Italian issuers. Another 16% were issued by Finnish and Belgian issuers. 48% of the issuers in the index are not listed and 33% of issuers have a market cap of below EUR 2bn. 71% of all index issuers issued index debt of EUR 300mn or less. 31% of the outstanding amount had no Bloomberg's Default Risk Measure (DRSK), mainly because these issuers are not listed. 28% of the amount had a DRSK of IG5-7, 27% IG8-10 and 13% had a DRSK of HY 1-6. We note that in January 2009, 40% of the index had a DRSK (i.e. with listing). Given the significant increase in issuance of listed issuers, the current share of issuers that have a DRSK/listing has risen to 69%. For a validation and comparison between DRSK and rating agency ratings (average ratings of S&P, Moody's and Fitch) in the iBoxx non-financials IG/HY index, please refer to page 55. The chart shows that the DRSK often indicates a rating that is several notches higher than the assigned average agency rating, with the difference being more pronounced in the BB/B average rating category. We have a buy recommendation on the unrated bonds of Amplifon, Prada and Vestas and hold recommendations on the unrated bonds of adidas, Mahle, Novomatic, Sixt and Stada.
3
CONTENTS
SUMMARY
3
PRIMARY MARKET
4
4
iBoxx and unrated corporates issuance volumes Latest unrated issuance activity Monthly issuance volumes by sector Issuance volumes by sector Monthly issuance volumes by country Issuance volumes by country Issuance volumes by time to maturity Issuance volumes by coupon Issuance volumes by notional amount Issuance vs. redemptions Issuance vs. redemptions by sector
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
MARKET OVERVIEW
16
MARKET DATA
33
BLOOMBERG DRSK
47
COUNTRIES OVERVIEW
57
APPENDIX
63
iBoxx and unrated corporates issuance volumes Primary Market
iBoxx NFI IG
100
Non-Rated (RS)
200
80
150
60
100
40
50
20
0
0 2003
5
iBoxx NFI HY (RS)
2004
2005
Source: iBoxx, Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 YTD
HY/NR issuance volume in EUR bn
IG issuance volume in EUR bn
250
Latest unrated issuance activity Primary Market
Issue Date 08/04/15 07/31/15 07/30/15 07/30/15 07/29/15 07/21/15 07/15/15 07/15/15 07/13/15 07/10/15 07/03/15 07/02/15 07/02/15 06/23/15 06/16/15 05/20/15 05/15/15 05/13/15 04/29/15 04/28/15 04/27/15 04/13/15 04/09/15 04/08/15 04/02/15 04/01/15 04/01/15 03/27/15 03/25/15 03/18/15
6
Issuer ENAVIT CLN Group Alitalia Eurofins Scientific Bollore SIJ Tessenderlo Chemie Tessenderlo Chemie Estra Energia Korian-Medica Mota-Engil AtoS Forchem Studio 100 Shanks Group Mahle Katjes Kemira Eurofins Scientific Ansaldo Energia Trafigura Beheer ITM Enterprises Prysmian STADA UCB ACS Air France-KLM Intercos YIT Sidecu
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
ISIN Ticker Coupon Maturity (Call) Out (EUR mn) Country Sector DRSK XS1272323343 ENAVIT 1.93% Aug-22 180 IT IGS XS1270847855 CLNSPA 4.7% Aug-22 100 IT BAS XS1263964576 ALITSA 5.25% Jul-20 375 IT TAL XS1268496640 ERFFP 3.375% Jan-23 (Oct-22) 500 FR HCA IG7 FR0012872174 BOLFP 2.875% Jul-21 (Apr-21) 450 FR IGS IG8 SI0032103531 SIJDD 4% Jul-20 51 SI BAS BE0002232016 TESBBB 2.875% Jul-22 192 BE CHE IG7 BE0002233022 TESBBB 3.375% Jul-25 58 BE CHE IG7 XS1258827069 ESTENG 3.75% Jul-22 100 IT UTI FR0012833788 KORIFP 3.306% Jul-23 135 FR HCA IG8 PTMENROM0004EGLPL 3.9% Feb-20 95 PT CNS HY3 FR0012830685 ATOFP 2.375% Jul-20 (Apr-20) 600 FR THE IG8 FI4000161906 FORCOY 4.9% Jul-20 (Jan-18) 70 FI CHE BE6278665490 STUDBB 3.35% Jun-22 (Jun-20) 90 BE TAL XS1238024035 SKSLN 3.65% Jun-22 100 GB IGS IG9 XS1233299459 MAHLGR 2.375% May-22 500 DE ATO DE000A161F97 KATJES 5.5% May-20 (May-18) 60 DE FOB FI4000153937 KRAVFH 2.25% May-22 (Feb-22) 150 FI CHE IG8 XS1224953882 ERFFP 4.875% PERP (Apr-23) 300 FR HCA IG7 XS1224617347 ANSALD 2.875% Apr-20 350 IT IGS XS1222731215 TRAFIG 5% Apr-20 550 NL OIG FR0012672129 ITMENT 2.391% Apr-22 250 FR RET XS1214547777 PRYIM 2.5% Apr-22 750 IT IGS IG7 XS1213831362 SAZGR 1.75% Apr-22 300 DE HCA IG8 BE0002488634 UCBBB 1.875% Apr-22 350 BE HCA IG6 XS1207309086 ACSSM 2.875% Apr-20 500 ES CNS IG9 FR0012650281 AFFP 6.25% PERP (Oct-20) 600 FR TAL HY1 XS1200651906 INTEIT 3.875% Mar-22 120 IT PHG FI4000148937 YITYH 6.25% Mar-20 (Sep-17) 100 FI CNS IG9 ES0305063002 SIDECU 6% Mar-20 55 ES TAL
MS@Issue 125 401 -270 235 -203 220 ---195 -270 -180 -170 -269 481 -225 -150 272 --597 --
7 4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 CNS
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
Aug-2015
Jul-2015
CHE
Jun-2015
May-2015
Apr-2015
FOB
Mar-2015
Feb-2015
ATO
Jan-2015
Dec-2014
UTI
Nov-2014
Oct-2014
MDI
Sep-2014
Aug-2014
PHG
Jul-2014
Jun-2014
THE
May-2014
Apr-2014
TAL
Mar-2014
Feb-2014
BAS
Jan-2014
Dec-2013
Nov-2013
Oct-2013
Aug-2013
Jun-2013
RET
Sep-2013
4.5 OIG
Jul-2013
HCA
May-2013
Apr-2013
IGS
Mar-2013
Feb-2013
Jan-2013
Issuance volume in EUR bn
Monthly issuance volumes by sector Primary Market
TEL
Issuance volumes by sector Primary Market
IGS
HCA
OIG
RET
CNS
BAS
TAL
PHG 20
MDI
UTI
ATO
FOB
CHE
TEL
THE
Issuance volumes LTM THE 10.9% TAL 7.0%
18
MDI 2.9% UTI 3.8%
BAS 5.6% CNS 5.8% RET 5.0%
16
Issuance volume in EUR bn
PHG 7.0%
14
ATO 6.5%
OIG 10.5%
12
FOB 3.2% CHE 2.8% IGS TEL 13.4% 0.9%
HCA 14.6%
10
Issuance volumes YTD 8 BAS 2.2%
CNS 6.4%
6
TAL 10.1%
THE 11.9%
RET 7.2%
4 2
OIG 14.3%
8
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0 HCA 17.8%
IGS 17.7%
PHG 1.0%
MDI 0.0% UTI 2.6% ATO 4.3% FOB 0.5% TEL CHE 0.0% 4.0%
9 Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Aug-2015
Jul-2015
Jun-2015
May-2015
Apr-2015
Mar-2015
Feb-2015
Jan-2015
Dec-2014
Nov-2014
NL
Oct-2014
Sep-2014
ES
Aug-2014
Jul-2014
BE
Jun-2014
May-2014
AT
Apr-2014
FI
Mar-2014
Feb-2014
IT
Jan-2014
Dec-2013
Nov-2013
Sep-2013
DE
Oct-2013
4.5 FR
Aug-2013
Jul-2013
Jun-2013
May-2013
Apr-2013
Mar-2013
Feb-2013
Jan-2013
Issuance volume in EUR bn
Monthly issuance volumes by country Primary Market
Oth
Issuance volumes by country Primary Market
FR
DE
IT
FI
AT
BE
ES
NL
Issuance volumes LTM
Oth
AT FI 2.7% 9.4%
20
BE 8.2%
ES 7.1%
18 16
Issuance volume in EUR bn
NL 5.9%
IT 17.1%
Others 6.6%
14 DE 18.0%
12
FR 25.0%
10
Issuance volumes YTD 8 FI 7.9%
6
AT 0.0%
BE 8.1%
ES 10.3%
IT 17.9%
4
NL 4.7%
2 Others 6.4%
10
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0
DE 16.3%
FR 28.4%
Issuance volumes by time to maturity Primary Market
11
Issuance volumes LTM
4-6y >10y
2-4y 8-10y
20
20
18
18
4
2
2
0
0
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
Average time to maturity in years
4
2015
6
2014
6
2013
8
2012
8
2011
10
2010
10
2009
12
2008
12
2007
14
2006
14
2005
16
2004
16
2003
Issuance volume in EUR bn
10y 5.9% 2-4y 8.6%
10y 2.2% 10%
14
6
Issuance volumes LTM 3-4% 15.6%
4-5% 7.0%
5-6% 8.1% 6-7% 6.7% 7-8% 1.2% 8-9% 0.6% 9-10% 0.0%
2-3% 44.2%
1-2% 16.7%
0-1% 0.0%
>10% 0.0%
1
8-9% 0.9%
0
0
9-10% 0.0%
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
2015
2
2014
7-8% 0.0%
2013
2
2012
4
2011
2
2010
6
2009
3
2008
8
2007
4
2006
10
2005
5
2004
12
2003
Issuance volume in EUR bn
10% 0.0%
Issuance volumes by notional amount Primary Market
160
6
120
4
80
2
40
0
0
2003
2015
8
2014
200
2013
10
2012
240
2011
12
2010
280
2009
14
2008
320
2007
16
2006
360
2005
18
2004
400
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
Issuance volumes LTM
300-500mn
20
Issuance volume in EUR bn
13
150-300mn Avg vol (RS)
>=500 mn 48.9%
Average issuance volume in EUR mn
=500mn
300-500 mn 21.3%
150-300 mn 12.6%
=500 mn 56.3%
300-500 mn 20.7%
=EUR 150mn) Upcoming redemptions by issuer ( 10
Cumulated percentage of issuers
Percentage of issuers
50%
Index debt outstanding of unrated issuers Market Overview
Percentage of issuers
50%
Cumulated percentage of issuers
100%
45%
80%
82
35%
70%
30%
60%
25%
50%
48
20%
40%
15%
30%
27
10%
20% 12
5%
10
8
8
9 3
6
8
0%
0% ≤ 100
20
10%
≤ 200
Source:Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
≤ 300
≤ 400 ≤ 500 ≤ 600 ≤ 700 ≤ 800 Index debt outstanding in EUR mn
≤ 900
≤ 1,000 > 1,000
Cumulated percentage of issuers
Percentage of issuers
40%
90%
Unrated market size by sector Market Overview
Current outstanding volumes by sector
IGS
HCA
OIG
RET
TAL
CNS
BAS
UTI
FOB
MDI
PHG
ATO
CHE
TEL
THE
80 THE 5.2%
FOB 4.7%
UTI 5.0%
PHG 4.3%
TAL 7.5%
ATO 3.6%
RET 8.3%
CHE 2.8%
OIG 11.4% HCA 11.6%
70
MDI 4.5%
IGS 18.0%
Volume outstanding in EUR bn
CNS 6.5%
BAS 6.2%
60
50
40
30
20
10 TEL 0.4%
21
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0
Unrated market size by country Market Overview
Current outstanding volumes by country FR
DE
FI
IT
BE
AT
ES
NL
Others
80
IT 9.8%
BE 8.0%
70 ES 4.0% NL 3.6%
FI 9.9%
Others 10.0%
Volume outstanding in EUR bn
AT 8.6%
60
50
40
30
20
DE 20.0% FR 26.0%
10
22
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0
Number of unrated issuers by country Market Overview
Current number of issuers by country Others 250
Belgium, 17, 8%
Spain, 10, 4% Netherlands , 6, 3%
Finland, 34, 15%
Others, 29, 13%
France, 41, 18%
Germany, 42, 19%
ES
BE
AT
IT
FI
FR
DE
200
Number of NFI issuers
Italy, 24, 11%
Austria, 21, 9%
NL
150
100
50
23
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0
Unrated market characteristics Market Overview
Outstanding volumes by time to maturity
10 5 0
>10y
8-10y
300-500 mn 24.7%
Sep-15
15
6-8y
150-300 mn 20.5%
Jan-14
20
4-6y
>=500 mn 35.5%
Jan-13
25
2-4y
Volume outstanding in EUR bn
=EUR 150mn) Market Overview
1,600
1,400
PORSCH
1,200
AFFP
ILDFP
CDIFP BOLFP
RHK
EGLPL
PCIM
FLUXBB
AIRBR
200
HELNRR TESBBB
400
GFKGR NDXGR
UCBBB
600
FNTNGR
800
OUTOK
SKFP
1,000
0 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16
30
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
Jul-16
Aug-16
Upcoming redemptions by issuer (=150 Notional
iBoxx € Non-Financials BBB
iBoxx € HY Non-Financials BB
700
600
ASW Spread in bp
500
400
300
200
100
0 Sep-10
34
Mar-11
Sep-11
Source: iBoxx, Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Yield history of Unrated Core vs. iBoxx Market Data
Unrated Core NFI
Unrated Core NFI >=150 Notional
iBoxx € Non-Financials BBB
iBoxx € HY Non-Financials BB
10 9 8
Yield in %
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Sep-10
35
Mar-11
Sep-11
Source: iBoxx, Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Spread universe of Unrated Core vs. iBoxx Market Data
500 iBoxx € HY NonFinancials
450 400
iBoxx € HY NonFinancials BB
ASW in bp
350 300 Unrated Core NFI 250 200
iBoxx € Non-Financials 150 iBoxx € Non-Financials BBB
100 50 0 3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0 mDur
36
Source: iBoxx, Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
5.5
6.0
Spread performance of unrated Core vs. iBoxx Market Data
MtD
YtD
Unrated Core NFI Unrated Core NFI 150+ Notional iBoxx € Non-Financials iBoxx € Non-Financials A iBoxx € Non-Financials BBB iBoxx € HY Non-Financials iBoxx € HY Non-Financials BB iBoxx € HY Non-Financials B -60
37
Source: iBoxx, Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
-40
-20
0 20 ASW change in bp
40
60
Unrated Core NFI ASW spread universe by modified duration (max. 1,000bp ASW and 8 mDur) Market Data
1,000 900 800
ASW in bp
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0
38
1
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
2
3
4 mDur
5
6
7
8
Unrated Core volumes vs. illiquid Market Data
80
Volume outstanding in EUR bn
70
Illiquid Core
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
39
Source: iBoxx, Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
Unrated Core spread history by notional and spread level Market Data
By notional
By spread level NR Core NFI NR Core NFI Mid Vol
NR Core NFI Low Vol NR Core NFI High Vol
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0 Sep-10
40
NR Core NFI NR Core NFI >=300 Notional
ASW Spread in bp
ASW Spread in bp
NR Core NFI 50-150 Notional NR Core NFI >=150 Notional 700
Sep-11
Sep-12
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
Sep-13
Sep-14
0 Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Unrated Core spread performance by notional and spread level Market Data
MtD
YtD
Unrated Core NFI
Unrated Core NFI 150+ Notional
Unrated Core NFI 300+ Notional
Unrated Core NFI High Vol
Unrated Core NFI Mid Vol
Unrated Core NFI Low Vol -10
41
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
0
10
20 30 ASW change in bp
40
50
60
Unrated Core spread history by sectors Market Data
200
800
150
600
100
400
50
200
0 Sep-10
Automobiles & Parts Chemicals Industrial Goods & Services 600
1,000
ASW Spread in bp
ASW Spread in bp
Oil & Gas (RS)
ASW Spread in bp
Utilities
250
0 Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Telecommunications
Media
ASW Spread in bp
ASW Spread in bp
500
300 200 100 0 Sep-10
42
Sep-11
Sep-12
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
Sep-13
Sep-14
400 300 200 100 Sep-11
Sep-12
Health Care Personal & Househ. Goods Travel & Leisure 600
Technology
600
400
500
0 Sep-10
Sep-14
Basic Resources Construction & Materials
Sep-13
Sep-14
Food & Beverage Retail
400
200
0 Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Unrated Core spread performance by sectors Market Data
MtD
YtD
Unrated Core NFI Telecommunications Unrated Core NFI Media Unrated Core NFI Technology Unrated Core NFI Utilities Unrated Core NFI Chemicals Unrated Core NFI Industrial Goods & Services Unrated Core NFI Food & Beverage Unrated Core NFI Construction & Materials Unrated Core NFI Basic Resources Unrated Core NFI Personal & Household Goods Unrated Core NFI Health Care Unrated Core NFI Retail Unrated Core NFI Automobiles & Parts Unrated Core NFI Travel & Leisure Unrated Core NFI Oil & Gas -40
43
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
-30
-20
-10
0 10 20 ASW change in bp
30
40
50
60
Unrated Core sector spreads by modified duration Market Data
450
400 OIG TAL
350
ASW in bp
300
250
CNSRET BAS
FOB
IGS 200 HCA
MDI 150
PHG
THE ATO
UTI TEL
CHE 100
50 2.5
44
3.0
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
3.5
4.0 mDur
4.5
5.0
5.5
Unrated Core spread history by country Market Data
Germany
France
Finland
Austria
Italy
Belgium
450 400
ASW Spread in bp
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Sep-10
45
Mar-11
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Unrated Core spread performance by country Market Data
MtD
YtD
Unrated Core NFI Finland
Unrated Core NFI Austria
Unrated Core NFI Belgium
Unrated Core NFI Germany
Unrated Core NFI Italy
Unrated Core NFI France -60
46
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
-40
-20
0 20 ASW change in bp
40
60
80
CONTENTS
SUMMARY
3
PRIMARY MARKET
4
MARKET OVERVIEW
17
MARKET DATA
34
BLOOMBERG DRSK
47
47
Issuance volumes by Bloomberg default risk (DRSK) Unrated market size by Bloomberg default risk (DRSK) Unrated ASW spread universe by Bloomberg DRSK and duration Unrated Core spread history by Bloomberg DRSK Spread universe of Unrated Core by Bloomberg DRSK Unrated Core vs. iBoxx IG spread history by rating/DRSK Unrated Core vs. iBoxx HY spread history by rating/DRSK Unrated Core spread performance by DRSK Average rating by Moody's, S&P, Fitch vs. DRSK
48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56
COUNTRIES OVERVIEW
57
APPENDIX
63
Issuance volumes by Bloomberg default risk (DRSK) Primary Market
48
IG5-7 Avg DRSK
0.00%
18
0.08%
16
0.16%
14
0.24%
12
0.32%
10
0.40% 0.48%
8
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
0.80%
2010
0
2009
0.72%
2008
2
2007
0.64%
2006
4
2005
0.56%
2004
6
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
Issuance volumes LTM
IG8-10
IG8-10 24.7%
1year Bloomberg default risk (DRSK) at issuance
IG2-4 HY4-6
20
2003
Issuance volume in EUR bn
NR HY1-3
IG5-7 35.6% HY1-3 5.6% HY4-6 0.0% IG2-4 2.4%
NR 31.8%
Issuance volumes YTD IG8-10 18.5% IG5-7 43.1% HY1-3 5.9% HY4-6 0.0% IG2-4 0.0%
NR 32.6%
Unrated market size by Bloomberg default risk (DRSK) Market Overview
Current outstanding volumes by DRSK NR
IG1
IG2-4
IG5-7
IG8-10
HY1-3
HY4-6
DS1-3
80 IG8-10 27.0%
HY1-3 12.2%
IG5-7 27.8%
HY4-6 0.7% DS1-3 0.6%
Volume outstanding in EUR bn
70
60
50
40
30
20 IG2-4 0.4% IG1 0.0%
NR 31.2%
10
49
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0
Unrated ASW spread universe by Bloomberg DRSK and duration (listed issuers only) Market Data
1,000 1 - 4 Years
6 - 30 Years
4 - 6 Years
900 800
ASW in bp
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 IG1
50
IG2
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
IG3
IG4
IG5
IG6 IG7 IG8 IG9 IG10 HY1 HY2 HY3 HY4 HY5 HY6 Bloomberg 1Y Default Risk (DRSK)
Unrated Core spread history by Bloomberg DRSK Market Data
Unrated Core NFI DRSK IG2-4
Unrated Core NFI DRSK IG5-7
Unrated Core NFI DRSK IG8-10
Unrated Core NFI DRSK HY1-3
600
ASW Spread in bp
500
400
300
200
100
0 Sep-10
51
Mar-11
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Spread universe of Unrated Core by Bloomberg DRSK Market Data
900 800 Unrated Core NFI DRSK HY4-6
700
ASW in bp
600 500
Unrated Core NFI DRSK HY1-3
400
Unrated Core NFI DRSK IG8-10
Unrated Core NFI DRSK IG5-7
300 200 100 0 -100 2.5
52
2.7
2.9
Source: iBoxx, Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
3.1
3.3
3.5 mDur
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.5
Unrated Core vs. iBoxx IG spread history by rating/DRSK Market Data
Unrated Core NFI DRSK IG2-4
Unrated Core NFI DRSK IG5-7
Unrated Core NFI DRSK IG8-10
iBoxx € Non-Financials AA
iBoxx € Non-Financials A
iBoxx € Non-Financials BBB
350
300
ASW Spread in bp
250
200
150
100
50
0 Sep-10
53
Mar-11
Sep-11
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Unrated Core vs. iBoxx HY spread history by rating/DRSK Market Data
Unrated Core NFI DRSK HY1-3 Unrated Core NFI DRSK HY4-6
iBoxx € HY Non-Financials BB iBoxx € HY Non-Financials B
2,500
ASW Spread in bp
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0 Sep-10
54
Mar-11
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Unrated Core spread performance by DRSK Market Data
MtD
YtD
Unrated Core NFI DRSK IG
Unrated Core NFI DRSK IG2-4
Unrated Core NFI DRSK IG5-7
Unrated Core NFI DRSK IG8-10
Unrated Core NFI DRSK HY
Unrated Core NFI DRSK HY1-3 0
55
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
10
20
30 40 ASW change in bp
50
60
Average rating by Moody's, S&P, Fitch vs. DRSK (iBoxx EUR IG&HY universe) Market Data
IG1 IG2 IG3
Bloomberg 1Y DRSK Rating
IG4 IG5 IG6 IG7 IG8 IG9 IG10 HY1 HY2 HY3 HY4 HY5
Average Rating By Moody's, S&P, Fitch
56
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
B-
B
B+
BB-
BB
BB+
BBB-
BBB
BBB+
A-
A
A+
AA-
AA
AA+
AAA
HY6
CONTENTS
SUMMARY
3
PRIMARY MARKET
4
MARKET OVERVIEW
16
MARKET DATA
33
BLOOMBERG DRSK
47
COUNTRIES OVERVIEW
57
57
Germany issuance & redemptions top 30 issuers by outstanding France issuance & redemptions top 30 issuers by outstanding Finland issuance & redemptions top 30 issuers by outstanding Italy issuance & redemptions top 30 issuers by outstanding Austria issuance & redemptions top 30 issuers by outstanding
APPENDIX
58 59 60 61 62
63
Germany issuance & redemptions top 30 issuers by outst. volume Countries Overview
Issuer HOCHTIEF Porsche adidas Fraport Celesio Infineon Mahle Symrise Sixt Otto MBB Projects STADA ProSiebenSat.1 Media Air Berlin Solarworld freenet Rickmers VTG GfK Scholz German Pellets KTG Agrar Rhön Klinikum Asklepios Kliniken Nordex EUROGATE Ekosem-Agrar AMATHEON Deutsche Rohstoff OBI
58
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
Out Ticker Sector DRSK (EUR mn) HOTGR CNS IG8 1,750 PORSCH ATO IG4 1,000 ADSGR PHG IG7 1,000 FRAGR IGS IG7 950 CLSGR HCA IG5 850 IFXGR THE IG7 800 MAHLGR ATO 800 SYMRIS CHE IG6 800 SIXT IGS HY1 750 OTTOGR PHG 725 MBBAG OIG 673 SAZGR HCA IG8 650 PSMGR MDI IG6 600 AIRBR TAL HY6 591 SWVGR IGS HY3 527 FNTNGR TEL IG7 400 RCKMRS IGS 275 VTGR IGS IG10 250 GFKGR IGS IG8 200 SCHOLZ IGS 183 GERPEL CNS 172 KTGGR OIG HY2 170 RHK HCA IG6 152 ASKLEP HCA 150 NDXGR OIG IG8 150 EUROGT IGS 150 EKOSEM FOB 128 AMAGRI FOB 125 DROGY BAS HY1 100 OBIGR RET 100
Issuance (EUR mn) 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15
Exp. Redemptions (EUR mn) 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 1,000
1,000
800 500
300 196 400 250 200 100 152 150 50
100
France issuance & redemptions top 30 issuers by outst. volume Countries Overview
Issuer Air France-KLM Eurofins Scientific Rallye Lagardere Bureau Veritas Bollore Christian Dior Galeries Lafayette Plastic Omnium BSA AtoS Eramet Neopost Iliad Soc. d'Inf. Gazieres Vilmorin & Cie Ingenico Orpea BioMerieux Cie des Alpes SEB ITM Enterprises Altran Technologies Fareva Korian-Medica Safran Groupe Steria Vranken-Pommery Monopole Norbert Dentressangle Nexity
59
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
Ticker AFFP ERFFP RALFP MMBFP BVIFP BOLFP CDIFP GLFP POMFP BSASA ATOFP ERAFP NEOFP ILDFP GAZIER RINFP INGFP ORPFP BIMFP CDAFP SKFP ITMENT ALTFP FAREVA KORIFP SAFFP RIAFP VRAPFP GNDFP NXIFP
Out Sector DRSK (EUR mn) TAL HY1 2,500 HCA IG7 1,600 RET HY4 1,599 MDI IG9 1,000 IGS IG6 1,000 IGS IG8 970 PHG IG7 800 RET 800 ATO IG8 750 FOB 658 THE IG8 600 BAS HY1 525 THE IG10 500 MDI IG7 500 UTI 500 HCA IG8 450 THE IG7 450 HCA IG7 368 HCA IG4 300 TAL IG5 300 PHG IG7 300 RET 250 THE IG8 240 HCA 225 HCA IG8 203 IGS IG5 200 THE HY1 180 FOB IG8 175 IGS IG10 160 CNS IG7 146
Issuance (EUR mn) 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 600 500 300 500
Exp. Redemptions (EUR mn) 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
450
350 300
600
500
300 250 225 135
Finland issuance & redemptions top 30 issuers by outst. volume Countries Overview
Issuer Neste Oil Sanoma Outokumpu Kemira Huhtamaki Finnair Kesko Posti Group Tornator DNA Lemminkainen YIT Ahlstrom Metsaliitto Osuuskunta Nokian Renkaat Stockmann Outotec Orion Cargotec Talvivaara Mining Co Eagle Industries PKC Group Cramo Rettig St1 Nordic Amer Sports HKScan Tieto Ramirent Vapo
60
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
Out Ticker Sector DRSK (EUR mn) NESVFH OIG IG8 1,450 SWSAV MDI HY1 500 OUTOK BAS HY3 400 KRAVFH CHE IG8 350 HUHTAM IGS IG7 325 FOY TAL IG9 270 KESBV RET IG8 250 ITELOY IGS 250 TORNAT BAS 250 DNALTD TEL 250 LEMKFH CNS IG8 240 YITYH CNS IG9 200 AHLSFH IGS IG8 200 METOSU BAS 175 NOKREN ATO IG7 150 STOCKM RET IG10 150 OTEVFH IGS HY1 150 ORNVFH HCA IG5 150 CARGOT IGS IG8 150 TALVLN BAS 110 KOTKAM BAS 105 PKCVFH THE IG9 100 CRAFH IGS IG8 100 RETTIG CNS 100 STNORD OIG 100 AMEAS TAL IG6 100 HKSAV FOB IG9 100 TIEVFH THE IG6 100 RMRVFH IGS IG8 100 VAPOOY OIG 100
Issuance (EUR mn) 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 500
Exp. Redemptions (EUR mn) 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
150 150
150 70 100
100 100
110 105
100 100
Italy issuance & redemptions top 30 issuers by outst. volume Countries Overview
Out Issuer Ticker Sector DRSK (EUR mn) Pirelli PCIM ATO IG7 1,100 Prysmian PRYIM IGS IG7 750 Davide Campari-Milano CPRIM FOB IG6 750 Mediaset MSIM MDI IG9 675 Iren IREIM UTI IG8 660 Alitalia ALITSA TAL 375 Ansaldo Energia ANSALD IGS 350 Societa Esercizi Aereoportuali SEASPA IGS 300 Kedrion KEDRIM HCA 300 Fincantieri Cantieri Navali Italiani FINCAN IGS IG9 300 Amplifon AMPIM RET IG6 275 ENAVIT ENAVIT IGS 180 SARAS SRSIM OIG IG9 175 Alerion Cleanpower ARNIM OIG IG10 130 Prada PRADA PHG IG8 130 Intercos INTEIT PHG 120 Societa Elettrica Trentina Per La Distri SETDIS UTI 110 Bracco Imaging BRACCO HCA 100 Coesia COESIA IGS 100 CLN Group CLNSPA BAS 100 Estra Energia ESTENG UTI 100 Impresa Pizzarotti & C PIZRTI CNS 100 Estra ESTRAS OIG 50 Granarolo GRAFEL FOB 50
61
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
Issuance (EUR mn) 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 600 750
375 350
180 130 120 100 100 100
Exp. Redemptions (EUR mn) 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 500
Austria issuance & redemptions top 30 issuers by outst. volume Countries Overview
Issuer voestalpine SPAR Novomatic Egger Holzwerkstoff ANDRITZ Borealis Porr UBM Realitaetenentwicklung Central Point Swietelsky Baugesellschaft DO & CO CROSS Industries Casinos Austria Lenzing AT&S Frauenthal FACC KTM Montana Tech Miba Kapsch MEG Moebelhandel
62
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
Out Ticker Sector DRSK (EUR mn) VOEAV BAS IG8 1,900 SOWA RET 650 NOVO TAL 600 EGGER BAS 570 ANDRAV IGS IG6 350 BRLS CHE 325 POSAV CNS IG8 277 UBSAV CNS HY3 252 CPOINS THE 175 SWIBAU CNS 160 DOCOTI TAL IG9 150 CROSS ATO 135 CASINO TAL 121 LENV CHE IG8 120 ATSAV IGS IG8 100 FKAAV ATO IG10 92 AVICAI IGS IG9 90 KTMG TAL IG7 85 MNTCCO IGS 80 MIBA ATO IG7 75 KTCGAV IGS IG8 71 MEGAV PHG 52
Issuance (EUR mn) 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 400
52
Exp. Redemptions (EUR mn) 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
125
60
92
CONTENTS
SUMMARY
3
PRIMARY MARKET
4
MARKET OVERVIEW
16
MARKET DATA
33
BLOOMBERG DRSK
47
COUNTRIES OVERVIEW
57
APPENDIX
63
63
Unrated corporate bond index criteria Index sector structure
64 65
Unrated corporate bond index criteria Appendix
Unrated bond universe includes:
Excluded bonds:
Plain-vanilla bonds, Callable bonds and perpetuals Fixed-to-float bonds
Bond selection criteria:
Denomination in EUR Amount outstanding ≥ EUR 50mn Time to maturity (work-out-date) ≥ 1 year No bond/issuer rating (Moody's, S&P, Fitch) Issuer is part of the Non-Financial sector
Floating-rate notes Private placements Structured notes Index-linked notes Convertible bonds
Illiquid bonds: No reliable pricing on Bloomberg BVAL
Hi/Lo Vol Indices: 25% of bonds with highest/lowest last-month average spreads
Bloomberg DRSK: See on Bloomberg Terminal: DRSK Brochure: BPS L#1937032-ENG White Paper: BPS L#1937035-ENG
64
Index composition fixing: Two workdays before the first calendar day of the month
Index sector structure Appendix
Sector
Sub-Sector
Basic Materials (BSC)
Basic Resources (BAS) Chemicals (CHE) Consumer Goods (CGD) Automobiles & Parts (ATO) Food & Beverage (FOB) Personal & Household Goods (PHG) Consumer Services (CSV) Media (MDI) Retail (RET) Travel & Leisure (TAL) Health Care (HCA) Health Care (HCA) Construction & Materials (CNS) Industrials (IDU) Industrial Goods & Services (IGS) Oil & Gas (OIG) Oil & Gas (OIG) Technology (THE) Technology (THE) Telecommunications (TEL) Telecommunications (TEL) Utilities (UTI) Utilities (UTI)
65
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
Three biggest issuers voestalpine (44.6%), Egger Holzwerkstoff (13.4%), Eramet (12.3%) Symrise (41.8%), Kemira (18.3%), Borealis (17.0%) Mahle (32.0%), Plastic Omnium (30.0%), Pirelli (24.0%) Davide Campari-Milano (23.9%), BSA (21.0%), Aryzta (8.0%) adidas (33.3%), Otto (24.2%), Christian Dior (16.7%) Lagardere (32.3%), Mediaset (21.8%), ProSiebenSat.1 Media (19.4%) Rallye (27.8%), Louis Dreyfus Commodities (15.6%), Galeries Lafayette (13.9%) Air France-KLM (44.8%), Novomatic (11.7%), Air Berlin (7.7%) UCB (24.0%), Eurofins Scientific (23.7%), Celesio (10.6%) HOCHTIEF (39.3%), ACS (11.2%), UBM Realitaetenentwicklung (5.7%) Bureau Veritas (8.1%), Fraport (7.7%), ENA Infraestructuras (7.5%) Neste Oil (18.2%), Trafigura Beheer (14.5%), Galp Energia (12.6%) Infineon (22.2%), AtoS (16.7%), Neopost (13.9%) DNA (100.0%) Fluxys Belgium (20.1%), ORES (19.6%), Iren (19.0%)
Your contacts
UniCredit Corporate Credit Research Dr. Sven Kreitmair, CFA, Co-Head Automotive & Mobility +49 89 378-13246
[email protected] Volker Maslo +49 89 378-12555
[email protected]
Stephan Haber, CFA, Co-Head Telecoms, Technology +49 89 378-15192
[email protected] Christian Aust, CFA Industrials +49 89 378-12806
[email protected] David Bertholdt Capital Goods & Services +49 89 378-13211
[email protected] Mehmet Dere Retail, Travel & Leisure, Oil & Gas +49 89 378-11294
[email protected]
66
Michael Gerstner Utilities, Hybrids +49 89 378-15449
[email protected] Jonathan Schroer, CFA Media/Cable, Logistics, Business Services +49 89 378-13212
[email protected] Dr. Silke Stegemann, CEFA Health Care & Pharma, Food & Beverage, Personal & H. Goods +49 89 378-18202
[email protected] Imprint Corporate & Investment Banking UniCredit Bank AG Credit Research Arabellastr. 12 – MRE3CC D-81925 Munich
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68
3/11/2015 10/10/2014 6/4/2015 2/16/2015
Hold Hold Hold no rec.
NOVO VOEAV PCIM VWSDC
7/22/2015 10/14/2014 9/24/2014 8/20/2015
Hold Restricted no rec. Buy
SAZGR VOEAV
Disclaimer Credit Research Overview of our ratings You will find the history of rating regarding recommendation changes as well as an overview of the breakdown in absolute and relative terms of our investment ratings on our website http://www.disclaimer.unicreditmib.eu/credit-research-rd/Recommendations_CR_e.pdf . Note on the evaluation basis for interest-bearing securities: Recommendations relative to an index: For high grade names the recommendations are relative to the "iBoxx EUR Benchmark" index family, for sub investment grade names the recommendations are relative to the "iBoxx EUR High Yield" index family. Marketweight: We recommend having the same portfolio exposure in the name as the respective iBoxx index. We expect that the average total return of the instruments of the issuer is equal to the total return of the index. Overweight: We recommend having a higher portfolio exposure in the name as the respective iBoxx index. 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We employ three further categorizations for interest-bearing securities in our coverage: Restricted: A recommendation and/or financial forecast is not disclosed owing to compliance or other regulatory considerations such as a blackout period or a conflict of interest. Coverage in transition: Due to changes in the research team, the disclosure of a recommendation and/or financial information are temporarily suspended. The interest-bearing security remains in the research universe and disclosures of relevant information will be resumed in due course. Not rated: Suspension of coverage. Trading recommendations for fixed-interest securities mostly focus on the credit spread (yield difference between the fixed-interest security and the relevant government bond or swap rate) and on the rating views and methodologies of recognized agencies (S&P, Moody’s, Fitch). Depending on the type of investor, investment ratings may refer to a short period or to a 6 to 9-month horizon. Please note that the provision of securities services may be subject to restrictions in certain jurisdictions. You are required to acquaint yourself with local laws and restrictions on the usage and the availability of any services described herein. The information is not intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to the applicable law or provisions. If not otherwise stated daily price data refers to pre-day closing levels and iBoxx bond index characteristics refer to the previous month-end index characteristics. Coverage Policy A list of the companies covered by UniCredit Bank is available upon request. Frequency of reports and updates It is intended that each of these companies be covered at least once a year, in the event of key operations and/or changes in the recommendation. SIGNIFICANT FINANCIAL INTEREST UniCredit Bank AG and/or other related legal persons with them regularly trade shares of the analyzed company. UniCredit Bank AG and/or other related legal persons may hold significant open derivative positions on the stocks of the company which are not delta-neutral. UniCredit Bank AG and/or other related legal persons have a significant financial interest relating to the analyzed company or may have such at any future point of time. Due to the fact that UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related legal person are entitled, subject to applicable law, to perform such actions at any future point in time which may lead to the existence of a significant financial interest, it should be assumed for the purposes of this information that UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related legal person will in fact perform such actions which may lead to the existence of a significant financial interest relating to the analyzed company. Analyses may refer to one or several companies and to the securities issued by them. In some cases, the analyzed companies have actively supplied information for this analysis. INVESTMENT BANKING TRANSACTIONS The analyzed company and UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related legal person concluded an agreement on services in connection with investment banking transactions in the previous 12 months, in return for which the Bank and/or such related legal person received a consideration or promise of consideration or intends to do so. Due to the fact that UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related legal person are entitled to conclude, subject to applicable law, an agreement on services in connection with investment banking transactions with the analyzed company at any future point in time and may receive a consideration or promise of consideration, it should be assumed for the purposes of this information that UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related legal person will in fact conclude such agreements and will in fact receive such consideration or promise of consideration. ANALYST DECLARATION The author’s remuneration has not been, and will not be, geared to the recommendations or views expressed in this study, neither directly nor indirectly. ORGANIZATIONAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE ARRANGEMENTS TO AVOID AND PREVENT CONFLICTS OF INTEREST To prevent or remedy conflicts of interest, UniCredit Bank has established the organizational arrangements required from a legal and supervisory aspect, adherence to which is monitored by its compliance department. Conflicts of interest arising are managed by legal and physical and non-physical barriers (collectively referred to as “Chinese Walls”) designed to restrict the flow of information between one area/department of UniCredit Bank and another. In particular, Investment Banking units, including corporate finance, capital market activities, financial advisory and other capital raising activities, are segregated by physical and non-physical boundaries from Markets Units, as well as the research department. Disclosure of publicly available conflicts of interest and other material interests is made in the research. Analysts are supervised and managed on a day-to-day basis by line managers who do not have responsibility for Investment Banking activities, including corporate finance activities, or other activities other than the sale of securities to clients.
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Disclaimer Credit Research ADDITIONAL REQUIRED DISCLOSURES UNDER THE LAWS AND REGULATIONS OF JURISDICTIONS INDICATED You will find a list of further additional required disclosures under the laws and regulations of the jurisdictions indicated on our website www.cib-unicredit.com/research-disclaimer. Notice to Austrian investors: This analysis is only for distribution to professional clients (Professionelle Kunden) as defined in article 58 of the Securities Supervision Act. Notice to investors in Bosnia and Herzegovina: This report is intended only for clients of UniCredit in Bosnia and Herzegovina who are institutional investors (Institucionalni investitori) in accordance with Article 2 of the Law on Securities Market of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Article 2 of the Law on Securities Markets of the Republic of Srpska, respectively, and may not be used by or distributed to any other person. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription for or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities and neither this document nor any part of it shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with or act as an inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Notice to Brazilian investors: The individual analyst(s) responsible for issuing this report represent(s) that: (a) the recommendations herein reflect exclusively the personal views of the analysts and have been prepared in an independent manner, including in relation to UniCredit Group; and (b) except for the potential conflicts of interest listed under the heading “Potential Conflicts of Interest” above, the analysts are not in a position that may impact on the impartiality of this report or that may constitute a conflict of interest, including but not limited to the following: (i) the analysts do not have a relationship of any nature with any person who works for any of the companies that are the object of this report; (ii) the analysts and their respective spouses or partners do not hold, either directly or indirectly, on their behalf or for the account of third parties, securities issued by any of the companies that are the object of this report; (iii) the analysts and their respective spouses or partners are not involved, directly or indirectly, in the acquisition, sale and/or trading in the market of the securities issued by any of the companies that are the object of this report; (iv) the analysts and their respective spouses or partners do not have any financial interest in the companies that are the object of this report; and (v) the compensation of the analysts is not, directly or indirectly, affected by UniCredit’s revenues arising out of its businesses and financial transactions. UniCredit represents that: except for the potential conflicts of interest listed under the heading “Potential Conflicts of Interest” above, UniCredit, its controlled companies, controlling companies or companies under common control (the “UniCredit Group”) are not in a condition that may impact on the impartiality of this report or that may constitute a conflict of interest, including but not limited to the following: (i) the UniCredit Group does not hold material equity interests in the companies that are the object of this report; (ii) the companies that are the object of this report do not hold material equity interests in the UniCredit Group; (iii) the UniCredit Group does not have material financial or commercial interests in the companies or the securities that are the object of this report; (iv) the UniCredit Group is not involved in the acquisition, sale and/or trading of the securities that are the object of this report; and (v) the UniCredit Group does not receive compensation for services rendered to the companies that are the object of this report or to any related parties of such companies. Notice to Cyprus investors: This document is directed only at clients of UniCredit Bank who are persons falling within the Second Appendix (Section 2, Professional Clients) of the law for the Provision of Investment Services, the Exercise of Investment Activities, the Operation of Regulated Markets and other Related Matters, Law 144(I)/2007 and persons to whom it may otherwise lawfully be communicated who possess the experience, knowledge and expertise to make their own investment decisions and properly assess the risks that they incur (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons or relevant persons who have requested to be treated as retail clients. Any investment or investment activity to which this communication related is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Notice to investors in Ivory Coast: The information contained in the present report have been obtained by Unicredit Bank AG from sources believed to be reliable, however, no express or implied representation or warranty is made by Unicredit Bank AG or any other person as to the completeness or accuracy of such information. All opinions and estimates contained in the present report constitute a judgement of Unicredit Bank AG as of the date of the present report and are subject to change without notice. They are provided in good faith but without assuming legal responsibility. This report is not an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or invest in securities. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance and future returns cannot be guaranteed, and there is a risk of loss of the initial capital invested. No matter contained in this document may be reproduced or copied by any means without the prior consent of Unicredit Bank AG. Notice to New Zealand investors: This report is intended for distribution only to persons who are “wholesale clients” within the meaning of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (“FAA”) and by receiving this report you represent and agree that (i) you are a “wholesale client” under the FAA (ii) you will not distribute this report to any other person, including (in particular) any person who is not a “wholesale client” under the FAA. This report does not constitute or form part of, in relation to any of the securities or products covered by this report, either (i) an offer of securities for subscription or sale under the Securities Act 1978 or (ii) an offer of financial products for issue or sale under the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013. Notice to Omani investors: This communication has been prepared by UniCredit Bank AG. UniCredit Bank AG does not have a registered business presence in Oman and does not undertake banking business or provide financial services in Oman and no advice in relation to, or subscription for, any securities, products or financial services may or will be consummated within Oman. The contents of this communication are for the information purposes of sophisticated clients, who are aware of the risks associated with investments in foreign securities and neither constitutes an offer of securities in Oman as contemplated by the Commercial Companies Law of Oman (Royal Decree 4/74) or the Capital Market Law of Oman (Royal Decree 80/98), nor does it constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy non-Omani securities in Oman as contemplated by Article 139 of the Executive Regulations to the Capital Market Law (issued vide CMA Decision 1/2009). This communication has not been approved by and UniCredit Bank AG is not regulated by either the Central Bank of Oman or Oman’s Capital Market Authority. Notice to Pakistani investors: Investment information, comments and recommendations stated herein are not within the scope of investment advisory activities as defined in sub-section I, Section 2 of the Securities and Exchange Ordinance, 1969 of Pakistan. Investment advisory services are provided in accordance with a contract of engagement on investment advisory services concluded with brokerage houses, portfolio management companies, non-deposit banks and the clients. The distribution of this report is intended only for informational purposes for the use of professional investors and the information and opinions contained herein, or any part of it shall not form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with or act as an inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Notice to Polish Investors: This document is intended solely for professional clients as defined in Art. 3.39b of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (as amended). The publisher and distributor of the document certifies that it has acted with due care and diligence in preparing it, however, assumes no liability for its completeness and accuracy. This document is not an advertisement. It should not be used in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Notice to Serbian investors: This analysis is only for distribution to professional clients (profesionalni klijenti) as defined in article 172 of the Law on Capital Markets. Notice to UK investors: This communication is directed only at clients of UniCredit Bank who (i) have professional experience in matters relating to investments or (ii) are persons falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) (“high net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc.”) of the United Kingdom Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 or (iii) to whom it may otherwise lawfully be communicated (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). This communication must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this communication relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. This document may not be distributed in Canada. CR e 6
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