The global market for RFID

The global market for RFID 2010-2020 Dr Peter Harrop

[email protected] www.IDTechEx.com

Consulting – Publications – Conferences

© IDTechEx Ltd

RFID is a fast growing business

$bn

2005

2010

2020

Tags

1.0

2.1

9.9

Other

0.9

3.5

12

Total

1.9

5.6

21.9

Consulting – Publications – Conferences

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It is not all about paybacks GOVERNMENT LAWS – fit it to your cattle in Australia, Canada, Uruguay, Botswana, dogs in New Zealand, sheep and goats in Europe or go to jail GOVERNMENT MONEY – largest orders are military and local government for non stop road tolling and air baggage in USA/Korea and city cards and national ID card in China. E-Passports in 70 countries CRIME PREVENTION – hospitals, postal service ERROR PREVENTION – healthcare LIFE SAVING AND HEALTH - healthcare Consulting – Publications – Conferences

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Largest orders are placed by Government China National ID Card $6 billion HF passive ACS for New York/ New Jersey EZ Pass $500 million UHF Active (In 2006, New Jersey Turnpike Authority spent $28 million to replace 1.1 million old E-Z pass toll tags before their batteries ran out) Savi Technology for US Army $500 million 433 MHz active Unisys consortium for US Army $500 million 433MHz active/UHF passive E-Passports UK – De La Rue $600 million E-passport infrastructure UK and USA $30-$65 million HF passive E-passport RFID inserts for USA $50 million HF passive Applied Digital river readers US Army/ Bonneyville Hydro $45 m LF passive Consulting – Publications – Conferences

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RFID is $5.6 billion in 2010 but fragmented Over 1000 suppliers: top ten have half the business Largest include these (double counting in the sales) Gemplus –RFID cards & passports $500 million+ NXP – chips $500 million ACS – Non stop road tolling and transport card system integrators $500 million Assa Abloy – secure access, livestock$400 million Savi – military & heavy logistics systems integration $200 million Smartrac - Passport inlays $150 million Allflex – livestock tags $110 million Consulting – Publications – Conferences

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Passive and active RFID Passive has no power supply in the tag - low cost, longest life tags

BIGGEST MARKET Active has a power supply in the tag, usually a battery First generation active is a tag that is read when near an interrogator – longer range, can initiate a signal. BIG

MARKET eg car keys, military, road toll

Second generation active is Real Time Locating Systems RTLS - many interrogators locating a tag from a distance eg 150 US hospitals Third Generation Active is Wireless Sensor Networks WSN - every tag “node” can be a reader in a mesh network like the internet ie self organising, self healing and it can sense something. Consulting – Publications – Conferences

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HF RFID is over 50% of market value National ID card Passport label/ page

Security and/or Memory size

Aircraft part tag

Secure access or credit card Transit card Transit ticket Library book label Item drug label Retail pallet/case label

7 cents Consulting – Publications – Conferences

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Dropping price to 2 cents by getting rid of the chip Kovio ink jet printed, nanosilicon RFID in the lead Samples are now available

ISO14443 1000 transistors *

RFID markets – tout ça change The world’s most popular annual analysis of RFID markets IDTechEx “RFID Forecasts, Players & Opportunities 2010-2020” finds

Largest expenditure by sector 2010 1. Financial, Security, Safety 2. Passenger Transport, Automotive 3. Animals and Farming 2020 1. Retail, Consumer Goods 2. Financial, Security, Safety 3. Land & Sea Logistics, Postal Consulting – Publications – Conferences

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World’s largest reality check on RFID The IDTechEx Knowledgebase of over 4100 projects in 112 countries (4150 organisations, 770 slide shows/audio) shows: Largest number of projects is 1. Financial, Security, Safety, nearly all HF 2. Retail and Consumer Goods, mainly UHF However, Retail/CPG is under 5% of the money spent on RFID so there is a long way to go Consulting – Publications – Conferences

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Number of case studies by project status is a glimpse of the future from the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase 1800

Number of case studies

1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200

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Here comes China From the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase Number of case studies

1,500

1375

1,000

500

397 303

224

190

170

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Number of case studies

Case studies by tag location From the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase 1200

1000

800

600

400

200

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Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd

HF is always the most popular frequency 1400 (but UHF people shout loudest) HF is over 50% of the value of the RFID market - cards, tickets, passports, logistics etc

Number of case studies

1200 1000

World’s favourite RFID standard is HF= ISO14443 (+15693)

800 600 400 200

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Source: IDTechEx RFID Forecasts, Players & Opportunities 2009-2019 www.IDTechEx.com/forecasts © IDTechEx Ltd

Case studies by active/passive From the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase 2500

Number of case studies

2000

1500

1000

500

0 Active Consulting – Publications – Conferences

Passive © IDTechEx Ltd

Case studies by read/write From the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase 2000

Number of case studies

1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Read Only Consulting – Publications – Conferences

Read/Write © IDTechEx Ltd

Consulting – Publications – Conferences

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Number of case studies

Case studies by application From the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase 700

600

500

400

300

200

100

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© IDTechEx Ltd

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Consulting – Publications – Conferences

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Case studies by tag shape From the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

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© IDTechEx Ltd

Tag numbers will rocket if printed RFID with no chip is available and adopted but unnecessarily complicated standards must be abandoned Number billion Tags

Consulting – Publications – Conferences

2005

2010

2020

0.7

2.4

125 – mainly 2 cent chipless tags

© IDTechEx Ltd

Passive tags remain dominant in numbers Number billion

2005

2010

2020

Active

0.05

0.06

0.8

Passive

0.66

2.3

124

Total

0.71

2.4

125

Passive tag systems migrate to HF and UHF Active tag systems migrate to 2.45GHz and UWB and are more profitable Consulting – Publications – Conferences

© IDTechEx Ltd

For more read: RFID Forecasts, Players and Opportunities 2010-2020

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