March 25, 2017 | Author: Jerome Lang | Category: N/A
1 iboxx index roll preview Changes to the iboxx and index families Primary market activity remains surprisingly strong g...
Cross Asset Strategy | Fixed Income Joint Venture
iBoxx index roll preview
29 June 2015
Changes to the iBoxx € and £ index families Primary market activity remains surprisingly strong going into the summer – however, covered bond issuance remains weak. Issuers continue to make use of the low yield environment. We continue to see an increasing number of international (i.e. non-eurozone) issuers issuing euro bonds. In the upcoming rebalancing, we expect the average duration of the iBoxx € Overall index to increase by 0.05 and the iBoxx Eurozone Sovereign index to increase by 0.02. For both, these are slightly lower than the historical index extensions for a July rebalancing. iBoxx € Overall In the upcoming rebalancing, 47 new bonds are joining the iBoxx universe, consisting of three sovereign bonds (€14.6bn), three sub-sovereigns (€5.6bn), ten covered bonds (€8.7bn) and 31 investment grade corporate bonds (€19.8bn). For the iBoxx € Overall index, we compute a duration increase of c. 0.05 in the upcoming rebalancing, which is in line with the overall historical average (0.05), and in line with extensions historically observed in July (0.05). iBoxx € Sovereigns We expect the duration of the Sovereign index to increase by c. 0.02. While this is below the overall average extension of 0.06, it is in line with the extensions usually seen in July.
This monthly report outlines the projected changes in the iBoxx indices for the coming index roll. It shows the additions and deletions as well as the impact on selected indices. For a detailed analysis of roll impacts on individual indices, also see the index roll report on our website ‘GlobeWeb’ at https://globeweb.commerzbank.com
Contents:
iBoxx € ............................................................ 2 Sovereigns ............................................................. 2 Corporates ............................................................. 8 Covered.................................................................. 9 Roll impact ........................................................... 10 Projected composition change ............................. 11
iBoxx £ .......................................................... 14
Roll impact ........................................................... 15 Projected composition change ............................. 16
iBoxx € Corporates Corporate issuance activity has remained strong as companies continue to benefit from the low yield environment for financing their operations. These days we increasingly see noneuro issuers, as generally tighter credit spreads in € overcompensate for the additional cost from the negative fx basis. With 31 bonds expected to join and 24 bonds leaving the index, the overall market size should increase by c. €1.9bn. We expect an increase of the index duration of c. 0.08. The average asset swap spread is expected to rise by 0.4bp. iBoxx € Covered Issuance activity among covered bonds was weak last month with only ten new bonds totalling €8.7bn. The duration of the iBoxx € Covered index is expected to increase by 0.08. CHART 1: Historical and projected changes in modified duration of the € Sovereign Index 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08
Cross Asset Strategy
0.06
Peter Werno, CFA
+49 69 136 87512
[email protected]
0.04
Andy Lee
0.02 0.00
+44 20 7475 6689
[email protected]
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
2012
May 2013
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
2014
Source: Markit, Commerzbank Research
Oct 2015
Nov
Dec
Rates & Credit Research Ted Packmohr
+49 69 136 87571
[email protected]
Rainer Guntermann
+49 69 136 87506
[email protected]
Bernhard Grünäugl, CFA
+49 69 136 45814
[email protected]
For important disclosure information please see pages 17 and 18. research.commerzbank.com / Bloomberg: CBKR / Research APP available
Marco Stoeckle, CFA
+49 69 136 82114
[email protected]
Cross Asset Strategy | Fixed Income Joint Venture
iBoxx € The environment for fixed income stabilised somewhat in June. Fed sentiment in the US and varying headlines about Greece continue together to remain the main stories affecting the market. Despite the significant increase in Bund yields, eurozone yield levels remain attractively low, especially for non-euro corporate issuers of which we see an increasing number of new bonds joining. Of the 48 new bonds that we currently expect to join the index, there are three sovereign issues (with a market value of €14.6bn), three sub-sovereign bonds (€5.6bn), ten covered bonds (€8.7bn) and 31 investment grade corporate bonds (€19.8bn).
iBoxx € Sovereigns CHART 2: Historic and projected duration extensions iBoxx € Overall vs iBoxx € Sovereign 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00
Nov-14
Jul-14
Mar-15
iBoxx EUR Overall
Jul-15
iBoxx Eurozone Sovereign
Source: Markit, Commerzbank Research
Performance Sovereign bond performance pointed downwards across the board in the eurozone in June with the exception of Greece. While sovereign yields generally rose, the peripheral-Bund spread remained unusually constant although slightly wider, peripheral sovereigns’ higher carry was sufficient to cover these slightly higher spreads. Overall, the iBoxx € Sovereign overall index lost -2.46% during June, with the average yield rising 35bp from 1.15% (31 May) to 1.50% (25 June). TABLE 1: Performance, spread & duration of iBoxx € Sovereign indices in June 2015 Name iBoxx Germany
Perf MTD
Perf 3M
Perf YTD
Aswp
Aswp MTD ModDur
Perf 1M
-0.02623
-0.04808
-0.01549
-25.3469
5.261454
6.985285
-0.01898
-0.0302
-0.05262
-0.01633
14.39202
7.156145
7.217917
-0.02349
iBoxx Italy
-0.01791
-0.04669
-0.00071
114.0545
-7.80704
6.451036
-0.01638
iBoxx Austria
-0.03046
-0.05252
-0.02043
-2.20118
9.433542
7.164088
-0.02312
iBoxx Belgium
-0.03359
-0.06156
-0.0177
14.04888
8.030643
7.775485
-0.02662
iBoxx Finland
-0.02442
-0.04093
-0.01711
-14.2351
6.181699
6.685353
-0.01783
iBoxx Ireland
-0.0233
-0.04422
-0.01297
36.83668
6.619094
6.18984
-0.01864
iBoxx Netherlands
-0.02819
-0.04959
-0.01675
-12.4425
7.55705
7.024649
-0.02083
iBoxx Spain
-0.01602
-0.0459
-0.0144
105.8444
-8.23302
6.13594
-0.01697
iBoxx Luxembourg
-0.01419
-0.02693
-0.00142
-29.6777
-0.28213
6.013259
-0.01046
iBoxx Slovakia
-0.03092
-0.04591
0.000122
18.62143
17.97586
6.505375
-0.02866
iBoxx Greece High Yield
0.033199
0.032675
-0.004
423.8293
-26.1668
8.207067
0.043703
iBoxx Portugal High Yield
-0.00757
-0.0402
0.017623
141.7742
-16.0976
6.19373
-0.01628
iBoxx Slovenia
-0.01913
-0.04465
-0.00047
89.02417
5.51005
5.419687
-0.0223
-0.0307
-0.05191
0.020784
30.42423
21.02842
6.530905
-0.02878
iBoxx France
iBoxx Latvia
Source: Markit, Commerzbank Research
2
29 June 2015
Cross Asset Strategy | Fixed Income Joint Venture
Duration We expect the duration of the iBoxx € Sovereign index to increase by just c. 0.02. While the extension is below the overall average, it is in line with the historical standards in July. CHART 3: Historical and projected index extensions for July index rebalancing 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00
1999
2001
2003
2005
Extension
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Average
Source: Markit, Commerzbank Research
The two bonds leaving the iBoxx sovereign universe are both Bunds while the joiners consist of an Austrian bond 2 from Spain. Of the sub indices Germany will see the greatest duration extension increasing by c. 0.07, followed by Ireland increasing by c. 0.05 and Netherlands and Austria gain c. 0.04 Table 2:
29 June 2015
3
Cross Asset Strategy | Fixed Income Joint Venture
Change Type
Duration Impact
Spread Impact
-35.5
dropped
0.0139
0.0243
-34.2
dropped
0.0042
0.0075
9.65
-4.1
new
0.0020
-0.0420
30-Jul-20
4.92
57.2
new
-0.0011
0.0082
31-Oct-25
9.18
92.1
new
0.0031
0.0970
28-Sep-21
5.53
-15.0
retirement
0.0003
0.0112
5.5
28-Mar-28
9.88
19.4
retirement
-0.0007
0.0068
0.25
25-Nov-16
1.42
-26.2
retirement
0.0002
0.0006
Netherlands
4
15-Jul-16
1.02
-32.3
retirement
0.0003
0.0006
Netherlands
2.5
15-Jan-17
1.54
-27.7
retirement
0.0005
0.0014
Spain
3.3
30-Jul-16
1.07
-1.0
retirement
0.0002
0.0003
Spain
3.8
31-Jan-17
1.56
9.7
retirement
0.0002
0.0003
Spain
2.1
30-Apr-17
1.83
12.3
retirement
0.0002
0.0004
Spain
4.85
31-Oct-20
4.71
68.0
retirement
0.0001
-0.0009
Spain
4.2
31-Jan-37
14.57
148.4
retirement
-0.0002
-0.0089
Spain
4.9
30-Jul-40
15.27
167.2
retirement
-0.0004
-0.0160
Spain
4.7
30-Jul-41
15.77
166.5
retirement
-0.0004
-0.0138
Spain
5.15
31-Oct-44
16.73
182.4
retirement
-0.0003
-0.0130
Austria
0.25
18-Oct-19
4.28
-23.0
tap
-0.0003
-0.0040
Austria
1.65
21-Oct-24
8.56
-6.9
tap
0.0001
-0.0045
Belgium
3.75
28-Sep-20
4.78
-20.4
tap
-0.0002
-0.0042
Belgium
0.8
22-Jun-25
9.51
3.9
tap
0.0000
0.0001
Belgium
3.75
22-Jun-45
19.79
51.0
tap
0.0020
0.0059
France
0
25-Feb-18
2.67
-24.5
tap
-0.0030
-0.0170
France
3.75
25-Oct-19
4.01
-21.3
tap
-0.0008
-0.0094
France
0
25-May-20
4.90
-17.0
tap
-0.0012
-0.0238
France
1.75
25-May-23
7.40
-7.6
tap
0.0002
-0.0131
France
0.5
25-May-25
9.57
2.1
tap
0.0022
-0.0385
France
2.5
25-May-30
12.53
18.4
tap
0.0043
-0.0258
Germany
0
16-Jun-17
1.98
-32.4
tap
-0.0043
-0.0180
Germany
0
17-Apr-20
4.81
-36.4
tap
-0.0010
-0.0257
Germany
0.5
15-Feb-25
9.33
-31.2
tap
0.0012
-0.0446
Ireland
2.4
15-May-30
12.47
49.4
tap
0.0009
0.0032
Ireland
2
18-Feb-45
21.45
71.2
tap
-0.0001
-0.0008
Issuer
Maturity
Germany
0.25
10-Jun-16
0.96
Germany
6
20-Jun-16
0.99
Austria
1.2
20-Oct-25
Spain
1.15
Spain
2.15
Belgium
4.25
Belgium France
Italy
0
27-Feb-17
1.67
18.6
tap
-0.0002
-0.0001
Italy
0.25
15-May-18
2.87
26.0
tap
-0.0017
-0.0021
Italy
0.7
01-May-20
4.73
53.7
tap
-0.0010
0.0055
Italy
1.35
15-Apr-22
6.40
75.1
tap
-0.0002
0.0133
Italy
1.5
01-Jun-25
9.04
85.6
tap
0.0010
0.0295
Italy
1.65
01-Mar-32
14.06
77.6
tap
0.0008
0.0088
Italy
3.25
01-Sep-46
19.15
141.4
tap
0.0020
0.0445
0
15-Apr-18
2.81
-26.6
tap
-0.0023
-0.0150 -0.0300
Netherlands Netherlands
4
Mod Aswp Sprd Duration
Coupon
2.75
15-Jan-47
21.99
6.6
tap
0.0047
Slovakia
4.625
19-Jan-17
1.53
5.7
tap
0.0000
0.0000
Slovakia
3.375
15-Nov-24
8.08
12.3
tap
0.0000
-0.0006
Spain
4.25
31-Oct-16
1.31
6.6
tap
0.0002
0.0003
Spain
5.5
30-Jul-17
1.95
16.6
tap
0.0002
0.0003
Spain
4.5
31-Jan-18
2.47
29.5
tap
0.0001
0.0001
Spain
0.25
30-Apr-18
2.83
27.4
tap
-0.0019
-0.0020
Spain
4.1
30-Jul-18
2.87
30.9
tap
0.0001
0.0001
Spain
4.6
30-Jul-19
3.68
45.6
tap
0.0001
-0.0002
Spain
4.3
31-Oct-19
3.95
50.0
tap
0.0001
-0.0004
Spain
4
30-Apr-20
4.46
60.1
tap
-0.0003
0.0015
Spain
5.85
31-Jan-22
5.60
90.6
tap
0.0001
-0.0027
Spain
5.4
31-Jan-23
6.36
100.4
tap
-0.0001
0.0081
Spain
4.8
31-Jan-24
7.15
103.5
tap
0.0000
-0.0028
Spain
4.65
30-Jul-25
8.03
107.7
tap
0.0000
-0.0030
29 June 2015
Cross Asset Strategy | Fixed Income Joint Venture
Issuer
Coupon
Maturity
Mod Aswp Sprd Duration
Change Type
Duration Impact
Spread Impact
Spain
5.9
30-Jul-26
8.33
124.3
tap
0.0000
-0.0045
Spain
6
31-Jan-29
9.89
140.7
tap
-0.0001
-0.0072
Spain
5.75
30-Jul-32
11.53
146.6
tap
-0.0002
-0.0091
Source: Markit, Commerzbank Research * Commerzbank forecast of planned auction. Timing and amount may differ ** Commerzbank forecast of planned new issue. Timing, amount, coupon or other details may not have been known at the time of writing, derived data such as duration is only a forecast
Rating RatingAgency Actions Country/Action Date 10-Jun S&P 5-Jun
S&P
Greece dn (C) Ireland up (A+)
Since our last publication, we observed just two rating actions. First there was S&Ps upgrade of Ireland by one notch to A+, next came their downgrade of Greece to C from C+ as the negotiations continue to look as far away as ever despite many calls for action.
Correlation The following matrices show one-month correlations for the most recent month. “Performance Correlation” tables show the correlation of the daily returns of the relevant iBoxx total return indices, and “Spread Correlation” tables show the daily spread difference correlation.
29 June 2015
5
Cross Asset Strategy | Fixed Income Joint Venture
1yr – 3yr Maturities TABLE 3: Performance correlation for iBoxx € Sovereign indices 1-3yr Performance
DE
Germany
FI
NL
AT
FR
BE
IT
ES
IE
PT
100%
85%
93%
92%
79%
80%
-21%
-17%
30%
9%
Finland
85%
100%
86%
90%
86%
90%
7%
12%
49%
-6%
Netherlands
93%
86%
100%
86%
89%
88%
10%
11%
42%
15%
Austria
92%
90%
86%
100%
83%
87%
-14%
-10%
34%
2%
France
79%
86%
89%
83%
100%
94%
22%
24%
46%
3%
Belgium
80%
90%
88%
87%
94%
100%
25%
28%
44%
2%
Italy
-21%
7%
10%
-14%
22%
25%
100%
97%
32%
-6%
Spain
-17%
12%
11%
-10%
24%
28%
97%
100%
40%
-4%
Ireland
30%
49%
42%
34%
46%
44%
32%
40%
100%
8%
9%
-6%
15%
2%
3%
2%
-6%
-4%
8%
100%
Portugal
Source: Markit, Commerzbank Research
TABLE 4: Spread correlation for iBoxx € Sovereign indices 1-3yr Aswp
DE
Germany
FI
NL
AT
FR
BE
IT
ES
IE
PT
100%
94%
96%
96%
91%
91%
7%
12%
71%
4%
Finland
94%
100%
96%
98%
95%
96%
24%
29%
81%
-5%
Netherlands
96%
96%
100%
98%
97%
97%
28%
32%
82%
7%
Austria
96%
98%
98%
100%
96%
97%
23%
27%
80%
2%
France
91%
95%
97%
96%
100%
99%
38%
42%
84%
-1%
Belgium
91%
96%
97%
97%
99%
100%
39%
42%
84%
3%
7%
24%
28%
23%
38%
39%
100%
97%
50%
-12%
Spain
12%
29%
32%
27%
42%
42%
97%
100%
56%
-9%
Ireland
71%
81%
82%
80%
84%
84%
50%
56%
100%
-3%
4%
-5%
7%
2%
-1%
3%
-12%
-9%
-3%
100%
Italy
Portugal
Source: Markit, Commerzbank Research
3yr – 5yr Maturities TABLE 5: Performance correlation for iBoxx € Sovereign indices 3-5yr Performance
DE
Germany
FI
NL
AT
FR
BE
IT
ES
IE
PT
100%
92%
93%
93%
85%
77%
-7%
-5%
68%
23%
Finland
92%
100%
97%
96%
96%
92%
25%
25%
85%
28%
Netherlands
93%
97%
100%
98%
96%
91%
20%
21%
85%
31%
Austria
93%
96%
98%
100%
97%
90%
20%
20%
83%
27%
France
85%
96%
96%
97%
100%
96%
39%
38%
90%
27%
Belgium
77%
92%
91%
90%
96%
100%
44%
41%
90%
31%
Italy
-7%
25%
20%
20%
39%
44%
100%
98%
57%
12%
Spain
-5%
25%
21%
20%
38%
41%
98%
100%
58%
14%
Ireland
68%
85%
85%
83%
90%
90%
57%
58%
100%
46%
Portugal
23%
28%
31%
27%
27%
31%
12%
14%
46%
100%
Source: Markit, Commerzbank Research
TABLE 6: Spread correlation for iBoxx € Sovereign indices 3-5yr Aswp Germany
DE
FI
NL
AT
FR
BE
IT
ES
IE
PT
100%
59%
72%
71%
29%
33%
-38%
-39%
18%
4%
Finland
59%
100%
87%
82%
85%
78%
38%
36%
67%
10%
Netherlands
72%
87%
100%
92%
78%
77%
17%
15%
66%
20%
Austria
71%
82%
92%
100%
79%
72%
15%
11%
59%
10%
France
29%
85%
78%
79%
100%
90%
63%
58%
83%
7%
Belgium
33%
78%
77%
72%
90%
100%
53%
46%
79%
18%
Italy
-38%
38%
17%
15%
63%
53%
100%
98%
68%
5%
Spain
-39%
36%
15%
11%
58%
46%
98%
100%
64%
4%
Ireland
18%
67%
66%
59%
83%
79%
68%
64%
100%
26%
4%
10%
20%
10%
7%
18%
5%
4%
26%
100%
Portugal
Source: Markit, Commerzbank Research
6
29 June 2015
Cross Asset Strategy | Fixed Income Joint Venture
5yr – 7yr Maturities TABLE 7: Performance correlation for iBoxx € Sovereign indices 5-7yr Performance
DE
Germany
FI
NL
AT
FR
BE
IT
ES
IE
PT
100%
94%
94%
96%
91%
89%
2%
3%
74%
27%
Finland
94%
100%
98%
98%
98%
97%
26%
28%
87%
30%
Netherlands
94%
98%
100%
99%
98%
97%
21%
23%
86%
27%
Austria
96%
98%
99%
100%
98%
97%
21%
22%
85%
31%
France
91%
98%
98%
98%
100%
99%
37%
38%
90%
28%
Belgium
89%
97%
97%
97%
99%
100%
40%
41%
90%
27%
Italy
2%
26%
21%
21%
37%
40%
100%
98%
56%
12%
Spain
3%
28%
23%
22%
38%
41%
98%
100%
59%
10%
Ireland
74%
87%
86%
85%
90%
90%
56%
59%
100%
34%
Portugal
27%
30%
27%
31%
28%
27%
12%
10%
34%
100%
Source: Markit, Commerzbank Research
TABLE 8: Spread correlation for iBoxx € Sovereign indices 5-7yr Aswp
DE
Germany
FI
NL
AT
FR
BE
IT
ES
IE
PT
100%
40%
38%
43%
12%
1%
-37%
-32%
4%
-1%
Finland
40%
100%
86%
83%
81%
77%
42%
45%
72%
8%
Netherlands
38%
86%
100%
90%
79%
79%
28%
34%
65%
2%
Austria
43%
83%
90%
100%
86%
83%
38%
43%
67%
15%
France
12%
81%
79%
86%
100%
96%
69%
73%
82%
3%
Belgium
1%
77%
79%
83%
96%
100%
73%
76%
79%
4%
Italy
-37%
42%
28%
38%
69%
73%
100%
97%
70%
6%
Spain
-32%
45%
34%
43%
73%
76%
97%
100%
72%
2%
4%
72%
65%
67%
82%
79%
70%
72%
100%
7%
-1%
8%
2%
15%
3%
4%
6%
2%
7%
100%
Ireland Portugal
Source: Markit, Commerzbank Research
7yr – 10yr Maturities TABLE 9: Performance correlation for iBoxx € Sovereign indices 7-10yr Performance
DE
Germany
FI
NL
AT
FR
BE
IT
ES
IE
PT
100%
97%
97%
97%
94%
94%
12%
8%
75%
34%
Finland
97%
100%
99%
99%
99%
99%
29%
24%
85%
37%
Netherlands
97%
99%
100%
100%
99%
99%
27%
24%
86%
34%
Austria
97%
99%
100%
100%
99%
99%
29%
24%
86%
38%
France
94%
99%
99%
99%
100%
100%
38%
34%
89%
34%
Belgium
94%
99%
99%
99%
100%
100%
38%
34%
89%
36%
Italy
12%
29%
27%
29%
38%
38%
100%
99%
63%
7%
Spain
8%
24%
24%
24%
34%
34%
99%
100%
60%
0%
Ireland
75%
85%
86%
86%
89%
89%
63%
60%
100%
38%
Portugal
34%
37%
34%
38%
34%
36%
7%
0%
38%
100%
Source: Markit, Commerzbank Research
TABLE 10: Spread correlation for iBoxx € Sovereign indices 7-10yr Aswp Germany
DE
FI
NL
AT
FR
BE
IT
ES
IE
PT
100%
41%
51%
43%
24%
16%
-35%
-37%
-4%
Finland
41%
100%
93%
90%
85%
85%
41%
39%
62%
-4%
Netherlands
51%
93%
100%
93%
86%
84%
29%
28%
62%
-14%
Austria
43%
90%
93%
100%
91%
89%
46%
44%
71%
3%
France
24%
85%
86%
91%
100%
97%
65%
64%
78%
-6%
Belgium
-23%
16%
85%
84%
89%
97%
100%
69%
68%
76%
2%
Italy
-35%
41%
29%
46%
65%
69%
100%
99%
74%
5%
Spain
-37%
39%
28%
44%
64%
68%
99%
100%
74%
0%
Ireland
-4%
62%
62%
71%
78%
76%
74%
74%
100%
-4%
-23%
-4%
-14%
3%
-6%
2%
5%
0%
-4%
100%
Portugal
Source: Markit, Commerzbank Research
29 June 2015
7
Cross Asset Strategy | Fixed Income Joint Venture
>10yr Maturities TABLE 11: Performance correlation for iBoxx € Sovereign indices >10yr Performance
DE
Germany
FI
NL
AT
FR
BE
IT
ES
IE
PT
100%
99%
100%
99%
96%
95%
26%
18%
78%
33%
99%
100%
100%
100%
98%
98%
31%
23%
83%
38%
100%
100%
100%
100%
97%
97%
28%
20%
81%
37%
Austria
99%
100%
100%
100%
97%
97%
30%
22%
82%
38%
France
96%
98%
97%
97%
100%
100%
47%
40%
90%
36%
Belgium
95%
98%
97%
97%
100%
100%
47%
40%
90%
37%
Italy
26%
31%
28%
30%
47%
47%
100%
99%
69%
7%
Spain
18%
23%
20%
22%
40%
40%
99%
100%
62%
0%
Ireland
78%
83%
81%
82%
90%
90%
69%
62%
100%
41%
Portugal
33%
38%
37%
38%
36%
37%
7%
0%
41%
100%
Finland Netherlands
Source: Markit, Commerzbank Research
TABLE 12: Spread correlation for iBoxx € Sovereign indices >10yr Aswp
DE
Germany
FI
NL
AT
FR
BE
IT
ES
IE
PT
100%
77%
92%
83%
28%
25%
-21%
-21%
9%
Finland
77%
100%
91%
95%
70%
69%
19%
15%
55%
0%
Netherlands
92%
91%
100%
94%
51%
49%
-6%
-9%
31%
-9%
Austria
83%
95%
94%
100%
63%
61%
16%
13%
50%
0%
France
28%
70%
51%
63%
100%
99%
76%
74%
86%
10%
Belgium
-31%
25%
69%
49%
61%
99%
100%
75%
72%
84%
13%
Italy
-21%
19%
-6%
16%
76%
75%
100%
99%
79%
17%
Spain
-21%
15%
-9%
13%
74%
72%
99%
100%
77%
13%
9%
55%
31%
50%
86%
84%
79%
77%
100%
18%
-31%
0%
-9%
0%
10%
13%
17%
13%
18%
100%
Ireland Portugal
Source: Markit, Commerzbank Research
Overall (all maturities) TABLE 13: Performance correlation for iBoxx € Sovereign indices (all maturities) Performance
DE
Germany
NL
AT
FI
LU
FR
BE
SK
IE
IT
ES
PT
100%
99%
99%
98%
97%
95%
95%
84%
76%
16%
10%
-6%
Netherlands
99%
100%
100%
99%
97%
98%
98%
86%
82%
23%
17%
1%
Austria
99%
100%
100%
100%
98%
98%
98%
86%
83%
25%
19%
2%
Finland
98%
99%
100%
100%
98%
98%
98%
86%
84%
28%
22%
6%
Luxembourg
97%
97%
98%
98%
100%
95%
95%
84%
78%
19%
13%
-4%
France
95%
98%
98%
98%
95%
100%
100%
86%
90%
41%
36%
17%
Belgium
95%
98%
98%
98%
95%
100%
100%
86%
90%
41%
36%
17%
Slovakia
84%
86%
86%
86%
84%
86%
86%
100%
78%
34%
30%
19%
Ireland
76%
82%
83%
84%
78%
90%
90%
78%
100%
65%
61%
49%
Italy
16%
23%
25%
28%
19%
41%
41%
34%
65%
100%
99%
85%
Spain
10%
17%
19%
22%
13%
36%
36%
30%
61%
99%
100%
87%
Portugal
-6%
1%
2%
6%
-4%
17%
17%
19%
49%
85%
87%
100%
Source: Markit, Commerzbank Research
TABLE 14: Spread correlation for iBoxx € Sovereign indices (all maturities) Aswp
DE
NL
FI
AT
LU
BE
FR
IE
IT
PT
ES
SK
100%
82%
71%
61%
42%
19%
15%
3%
-26%
-30%
-31%
-40%
Netherlands
82%
100%
94%
90%
55%
62%
60%
46%
-10%
6%
4%
-21%
Austria
71%
94%
100%
93%
66%
74%
71%
59%
3%
26%
24%
-6%
Finland
61%
90%
93%
100%
65%
77%
76%
62%
-2%
31%
29%
-6%
Luxembourg
42%
55%
66%
65%
100%
53%
56%
33%
31%
32%
31%
8%
France
19%
62%
74%
77%
53%
100%
99%
81%
0%
76%
75%
35%
Belgium
15%
60%
71%
76%
56%
99%
100%
80%
4%
76%
75%
37%
Ireland
3%
46%
59%
62%
33%
81%
80%
100%
6%
74%
74%
37%
Portugal
-26%
-10%
3%
-2%
31%
0%
4%
6%
100%
8%
4%
21%
Italy
-30%
6%
26%
31%
32%
76%
76%
74%
8%
100%
100%
66%
Spain
-31%
4%
24%
29%
31%
75%
75%
74%
4%
100%
100%
67%
Slovakia
-40%
-21%
-6%
-6%
8%
35%
37%
37%
21%
66%
67%
100%
Germany
Source: Markit, Commerzbank Research
iBoxx € Corporates Primary market activity remained strong in June as the continuous low yield environment attracts investors also from abroad. We currently (as at 25 June) expect 31 new bonds to join the index
8
29 June 2015
Cross Asset Strategy | Fixed Income Joint Venture
family in the upcoming rebalancing. These consist of ten financials and 21 non-financials. With 24 bonds leaving, the overall market size of the iBoxx € Corporates index should increase by c. €1.8bn. The average duration of the index is expected to increase by c. 0.08; the average asset swap spread is projected to increase by 0.4bp due to the composition change.
TABLE 15: Breakdown of changes in the corporate area # Bonds
Nominal
Market Value
Additions
31
19,800,000,000
19,478,137,591
Deletions
24
-20,037,391,000
-21,013,887,449
Taps
0
0
0
Retirements
3
-311,254,000
-362,699,043
Total
4
-548,645,000
-1,898,448,901
Source: Markit, Commerzbank Research
iBoxx € Covered Issuance activity in the covered bond market increased slightly in June, up to ten from the May total. At time of writing, seven new bonds – with only four bonds making the €1bn level – join the index. At the same time, 17 bonds will leave, resulting in a decline in market value of c. €7.6bn. As a result, the duration of the iBoxx € Covered index is expected to increase by c. 0.08. TABLE 16: Breakdown of changes in the covered bond area No. Bonds
Nominal
Market Value
Additions
10
8,680,900,000
8,714,692,181
Deletions
17
-16,287,000,000
-16,914,802,710
Taps
1
500,000,000
657,266,497
Retirements
0
0
0
-4
-7,055,172,335
-7,649,182,865
Total Source: Markit, Commerzbank Research
29 June 2015
9
Cross Asset Strategy | Fixed Income Joint Venture
iBoxx € roll impact TABLE 17: Projected impact on selected iBoxx € indices Modified Duration Index
Change
New
Based on €1bn invested Roll Costs
Cap. Inflow
Avg asset swap spread Change
New
iBoxx € Overall
0.05
6.18
-27279
3680503
0.1
iBoxx SOV Eurozone
0.02
6.86
-16939
9011274
-0.1
37.4
iBoxx SV EZ 1-3
0.05
1.89
-28750
27891379
1.2
-10.7
iBoxx SV EZ 3-5
0.04
3.77
-8899
-19520319
-0.3
2.3
iBoxx SV EZ 5-7
0.00
5.38
-13216
6869054
0.4
14.3
iBoxx SV EZ 7-10
0.06
7.45
-43056
35417904
0.1
29.8
iBoxx SV EZ 10+
0.05
13.30
-32860
-1321335
0.0
57.3
iBoxx Collateralized
0.08
4.54
-41436
-9346527
-0.1
6.3
iBoxx COLL 1-3
0.12
1.89
-163712
-33975
-0.4
0.0
iBoxx COLL 3-5
0.14
3.92
-152291
-2990426
-0.2
-3.1
iBoxx COLL 5-7
0.08
5.60
-108606
-8639866
0.1
-1.2
iBoxx COL 7-10
0.10
7.66
-69141
-39131623
0.4
7.9
iBoxx COLL 10+
0.05
11.10
0
-21253378
0.7
48.8
iBoxx € Corporates
0.08
5.12
-70116
-1232694
0.4
90.2
iBoxx CORP AAA
0.00
7.13
0
0
0.0
45.2
iBoxx CORP AA
0.14
5.39
-81180
-10651311
0.4
48.0
iBoxx CORP A
0.06
5.22
-133759
-380074
-0.3
69.0
iBoxx CORP BBB
0.08
4.93
-113955
699642
1.0
126.8
iBoxx € Corp Financials
0.07
4.57
-81359
2583413
0.9
102.4
iBoxx Banks
0.08
4.29
-78013
-2021000
0.3
83.6
iBoxx Financial Services
0.01
4.56
-39219
-10644234
-1.3
77.9
iBoxx Insurance
0.05
6.01
-148721
20112453
2.2
206.5
iBoxx Tier I
0.57
2.36
-8001941
1183043981
65.9
244.1
iBoxx Upper Tier II
0.00
2.97
0
0
0.0
282.8
iBoxx Lower Tier II
0.01
4.54
-52250
3093772
1.1
159.0
iBoxx € Corp Non-financials
0.08
5.53
-61870
-4031478
0.0
82.8
iBoxx Automobiles
0.03
4.68
-96774
14007486
0.5
78.6
iBoxx Basic Resources
0.04
5.10
0
-39194059
-4.0
95.6
iBoxx Chemicals
0.20
5.26
-22920
-17222408
-1.8
61.8
iBoxx Construction
0.17
4.64
-57819
-11673502
1.7
80.0
iBoxx Food&Beverage
0.02
6.35
-216323
30454637
1.2
65.9
iBoxx Healthcare
0.59
6.19
-360527
-35705225
0.6
70.8
iBoxx Ind Goods&Services
0.02
4.90
-45488
6825065
0.3
65.4
iBoxx Media
0.00
6.14
0
0
0.0
92.1
iBoxx Oil and Gas iBoxx Personal&Househ. Goods
0.05
6.02
0
-10185791
0.1
83.4
0.00
6.11
0
0
0.0
69.4
iBoxx Retail
0.00
5.48
0
0
0.0
78.5
iBoxx Technology
0.00
7.20
0
0
0.0
50.2
iBoxx Telecommunication
0.04
5.74
0
-8872667
0.1
98.3
-0.03
6.63
-771948
76538806
6.4
95.7
0.09
5.34
-31337
-10609443
0.1
98.3
iBoxx Travel & Leisure iBoxx Utilities
39.1
Source: Markit, Commerzbank Research
10
29 June 2015
Cross Asset Strategy | Fixed Income Joint Venture
iBoxx € projected composition change TABLE 18: Projected composition changes to the iBoxx € Indices ISIN
Issuer
Coupon
Maturity
Nominal
Dirty Price
ASW Spread
Mod Duration
Sub-Index
ES00000127G9
Spain
2.15
31-Oct-25
ES00000127H7
Spain
1.15
30-Jul-20
7,399,750,000
99.76
92.1
9.18
IBOXXSovES
3,218,140,000
100.22
57.2
4.92
AT0000A1FAP5
Austria
1.2
IBOXXSovES
20-Oct-25
4,000,000,000
100.00
-4.1
9.65
EU000A1G0DF9
EFSF
0.125
IBOXXSovAT
04-Nov-19
2,250,000,000
99.50
-17.1
4.34
IBOXXSubSovSUP
Additions
DE000A11QTG5
KFW
0.625
04-Jul-22
2,000,000,000
100.08
-21.8
6.85
IBOXXSubSovAGN
ES0378641205
FADE
0.85
17-Sep-19
1,300,000,000
99.38
61.8
4.13
IBOXXSubSovAGN
XS1248340587
Yorkshire Build.Soc.
0.5
19-Jun-20
500,000,000
99.63
4.7
4.91
IBOXXCovUK
XS1246782269
Skand Enskilda
0.75
16-Jun-22
1,000,000,000
99.62
-1.2
6.76
iBoxxCovSE
Banco Com.Port.
4.75
22-Jun-17
930,900,000
109.03
42.5
1.94
iBoxxCovPT
FR0012790319
CFF
0.125
18-Jun-18
1,500,000,000
100.09
-10.3
2.97
IBOXXCovFR
ES0413860455
Sabadell
0.375
10-Jun-20
750,000,000
98.75
13.4
4.89
iBoxxCovES
DG Hyp
0.625
05-Jun-24
500,000,000
97.68
-18.2
8.64
IBOXXCovDE
PTBCUB1E0005
DE000A13SWZ1 DE000MHB14J5
Muench Hyp
0.5
07-Jun-23
750,000,000
97.91
-18.2
7.75
IBOXXCovDE
DE000SK003C7
Sparkasse KoelnBonn
0.375
03-Jun-22
500,000,000
98.29
-18.2
6.82
IBOXXCovDE
XS1246658501
Royal Bk Canada
0.875
17-Jun-22
1,000,000,000
99.99
6.1
6.74
iBoxxCovCA
XS1245943755
Toronto-Dominion Bk.
0.5
15-Jun-20
1,250,000,000
99.94
0.8
4.90
iBoxxCovCA
XS1239586594
ESB FINANCE
2.125
08-Mar-27
500,000,000
100.12
74.8
10.25
IBOXXCorpUTI
XS1241581096
TenneT Hldg
1.75
04-Mar-27
500,000,000
96.53
69.0
10.62
IBOXXCorpUTI
XS1243251375
Eurogrid
1.875
10-Mar-25
500,000,000
98.95
79.3
8.98
IBOXXCorpUTI
XS1241581179
TenneT Hldg
0.875
04-Mar-21
500,000,000
99.31
33.7
5.75
IBOXXCorpUTI
XS1117297512
Expedia
2.5
03-Mar-22
650,000,000
99.15
185.0
6.27
IBOXXCorpTLL
FR0012790327
Gecina
2
17-Mar-24
500,000,000
98.09
111.6
8.11
iBoxxCorpREIT
XS1241701413
Inmobiliaria Colonia
2.728
05-Jun-23
500,000,000
96.82
216.8
7.00
iBoxxCorpREIT
XS1241699922
Inmobiliaria Colonia
1.863
05-Jun-19
750,000,000
99.52
164.9
3.76
iBoxxCorpREIT
XS1242413679
Aviva
3.375
04-Dec-25
900,000,000
94.95
263.8
8.55
IBOXXCorpINS
XS1217882171
Kommunal Landspensjo
4.25
10-Jun-25
600,000,000
98.54
318.2
7.94
IBOXXCorpINS
Autostrade Italia
1.625
12-Jun-23
750,000,000
98.13
92.0
7.38
IBOXXCorpIGS
XS1240751229
Eli Lilly & Co
2.125
03-Mar-30
750,000,000
96.68
85.3
12.58
IBOXXCorpHCR
XS1240751062
Eli Lilly & Co
1.625
02-Mar-26
750,000,000
97.10
61.8
9.89
IBOXXCorpHCR
XS1240750767
Eli Lilly & Co
1
03-Mar-22
600,000,000
98.89
38.1
6.65
IBOXXCorpHCR
XS1244539760
Motability Ops
1.625
09-Jun-23
550,000,000
100.30
62.5
7.40
IBOXXCorpFSV
XS1249493948
Archer Daniels Midld
1.75
23-Jun-23
600,000,000
100.63
73.6
7.40
IBOXXCorpFOB
XS1241577490
Unilever
1
03-Jun-23
500,000,000
97.69
36.8
7.56
IBOXXCorpFOB
XS1242327168
BRF
2.75
03-Jun-22
500,000,000
98.32
217.2
6.20
IBOXXCorpFOB
XS1117296381
Mohawk Ind.
2
14-Oct-21
500,000,000
100.47
119.3
5.86
IBOXXCorpCNS
FR0012766889
AIR LIQUIDE
1.25
03-Mar-25
500,000,000
100.08
6.9
9.06
IBOXXCorpCHM
XS1246732249
LB-BW
3.625
16-Jun-25
500,000,000
98.51
258.1
8.20
IBOXXCorpBNK
XS1240964483
Wells Fargo
1.625
02-Jun-25
1,250,000,000
97.45
73.1
9.06
IBOXXCorpBNK
FR0012770261
Credit Agri/Lon
1.16
09-Jun-22
500,000,000
97.61
69.1
6.61
IBOXXCorpBNK
XS1241546420
Nationw Build Soc
1.125
03-Jun-22
1,000,000,000
97.35
72.2
6.60
IBOXXCorpBNK
XS1239401216
Swedbank
1
01-Jun-22
750,000,000
97.49
56.2
6.63
IBOXXCorpBNK
XS1244060486
ABN Amro Bk
0.75
09-Jun-20
500,000,000
99.23
42.7
4.84
IBOXXCorpBNK
XS1241710323
Nomura Europe Fin. N
1.125
03-Jun-20
750,000,000
98.55
94.3
4.76
IBOXXCorpBNK
XS1241229704
Danske Bk
0.75
04-May-20
750,000,000
99.31
42.3
4.74
IBOXXCorpBNK
FR0012759744
RCI Banque
1.25
08-Jun-22
750,000,000
97.12
85.9
6.58
IBOXXCorpATO
XS1121198094
GM Fin Intl
1.875
15-Oct-19
500,000,000
102.49
114.9
4.06
IBOXXCorpATO
XS1193853006
GM Fin Intl
0.85
23-Feb-18
650,000,000
99.55
92.1
2.61
IBOXXCorpATO
XS0918749622
EIB
1.375
15-Sep-21
350,000,000
106.25
-21.3
5.93
IBOXXSubSovSUP
XS0858366098
EIB
1.375
15-Sep-20
450,000,000
106.30
-22.0
5.01
IBOXXSubSovSUP
SK4120008871
Slovakia
3.375
15-Nov-24
122,900,000
120.66
12.3
8.08
IBOXXSovSK
SK4120008301
Slovakia
4.625
19-Jan-17
49,400,000
108.84
5.7
1.53
IBOXXSovSK
NL0010721999
Netherlands
2.75
15-Jan-47
1,455,000,000
124.18
6.6
21.99
IBOXXSovNL
IT0005108490
Tap
29 June 2015
11
Cross Asset Strategy | Fixed Income Joint Venture
ISIN NL0011005137
Issuer
Coupon
Maturity
Nominal
Dirty Price
ASW Spread
Mod Duration
Sub-Index
Netherlands
0
15-Apr-18
3,265,000,000
100.17
-26.6
2.81
IBOXXSovNL
IT0005083057
Italy
3.25
01-Sep-46
946,567,000
102.70
141.4
19.15
IBOXXSovIT
IT0005094088
Italy
1.65
01-Mar-32
778,433,000
88.99
77.6
14.06
IBOXXSovIT
IT0005090318
Italy
1.5
01-Jun-25
2,875,000,000
94.59
85.6
9.04
IBOXXSovIT
IT0005086886
Italy
1.35
15-Apr-22
2,300,000,000
98.68
75.1
6.40
IBOXXSovIT
IT0005107708
Italy
0.7
01-May-20
2,809,400,000
98.36
53.7
4.73
IBOXXSovIT
IT0005106049
Italy
0.25
15-May-18
2,502,000,000
99.34
26.0
2.87
IBOXXSovIT
IT0005089955
Italy
0
27-Feb-17
300,000,000
99.51
18.6
1.67
IBOXXSovIT
Ireland
2
18-Feb-45
17,500,000
89.08
71.2
21.45
IBOXXSovIE
IE00BJ38CR43
Ireland
2.4
15-May-30
862,500,000
104.30
49.4
12.47
IBOXXSovIE
FR0011883966
France
2.5
25-May-30
4,027,000,000
110.41
18.4
12.53
IBOXXSovFR
FR0012517027
France
0.5
25-May-25
4,917,000,000
93.12
2.1
9.57
IBOXXSovFR
FR0011486067
France
1.75
25-May-23
1,785,000,000
106.67
-7.6
7.40
IBOXXSovFR
FR0012557957
France
0
25-May-20
3,662,000,000
98.26
-17.0
4.90
IBOXXSovFR
FR0010776161
France
3.75
25-Oct-19
1,727,000,000
117.69
-21.3
4.01
IBOXXSovFR
FR0012634558
France
0
25-Feb-18
4,010,000,000
100.14
-24.5
2.67
IBOXXSovFR
ES0000012411
Spain
5.75
30-Jul-32
1,000,000
144.96
146.6
11.53
IBOXXSovES
ES0000011868
Spain
6
31-Jan-29
28,900,000
140.77
140.7
9.89
IBOXXSovES
ES00000123C7
Spain
5.9
30-Jul-26
5,000,000
140.06
124.3
8.33
IBOXXSovES
ES00000122E5
Spain
4.65
30-Jul-25
15,500,000
126.54
107.7
8.03
IBOXXSovES
ES00000121G2
Spain
4.8
31-Jan-24
6,000,000
124.15
103.5
7.15
IBOXXSovES
ES00000123U9
Spain
5.4
31-Jan-23
831,200,000
127.58
100.4
6.36
IBOXXSovES
ES00000123K0
Spain
5.85
31-Jan-22
6,600,000
129.02
90.6
5.60
IBOXXSovES
ES00000122D7
Spain
4
30-Apr-20
782,310,000
114.37
60.1
4.46
IBOXXSovES
ES00000121O6
Spain
4.3
31-Oct-19
4,300,000
117.24
50.0
3.95
IBOXXSovES
ES00000121L2
Spain
4.6
30-Jul-19
17,900,000
119.32
45.6
3.68
IBOXXSovES
ES00000121A5
Spain
4.1
30-Jul-18
27,300,000
114.58
30.9
2.87
IBOXXSovES
ES00000127D6
Spain
0.25
30-Apr-18
2,713,920,000
99.32
27.4
2.83
IBOXXSovES
ES00000123Q7
Spain
4.5
31-Jan-18
12,300,000
112.17
29.5
2.47
IBOXXSovES
ES0000012783
Spain
5.5
30-Jul-17
15,300,000
115.79
16.6
1.95
IBOXXSovES
ES00000123J2
Spain
4.25
31-Oct-16
700,000
108.27
6.6
1.31
IBOXXSovES
DE0001102374
Germany
0.5
15-Feb-25
3,000,000,000
96.88
-31.2
9.33
IBOXXSovDE
DE0001141711
Germany
0
17-Apr-20
3,000,000,000
99.34
-36.4
4.81
IBOXXSovDE
DE0001104602
Germany
0
16-Jun-17
5,000,000,000
100.40
-32.4
1.98
IBOXXSovDE
BE0000331406
Belgium
3.75
22-Jun-45
710,000,000
135.06
51.0
19.79
IBOXXSovBE
BE0000334434
Belgium
0.8
22-Jun-25
130,000,000
95.65
3.9
9.51
IBOXXSovBE
BE0000318270
Belgium
3.75
28-Sep-20
725,000,000
120.29
-20.4
4.78
IBOXXSovBE
AT0000A185T1
Austria
1.65
21-Oct-24
550,000,000
106.20
-6.9
8.56
IBOXXSovAT
AT0000A19XC3
Austria
0.25
18-Oct-19
660,000,000
100.37
-23.0
4.28
IBOXXSovAT
XS0946693834
LB Hessen-Thu
1.875
26-Jun-23
500,000,000
110.19
-18.7
7.34
IBOXXCovDE
DE0001134468
Germany
6
20-Jun-16
-3,750,000,000
106.17
-34.2
0.99
IBOXXSovDE
DE0001137461
Germany
0.25
10-Jun-16 -13,000,000,000
100.49
-35.5
0.96
IBOXXSovDE
EU
2.75
03-Jun-16
-4,750,000,000
102.81
-13.1
0.94
IBOXXSubSovSUP
IE00BV8C9186
Deletions
EU000A1GRYT1 XS0638742485
Romania
5.25
17-Jun-16
-1,500,000,000
104.68
33.4
0.97
IBOXXSubSovSOV
XS0233031326
Quebec
3.375
20-Jun-16
-1,500,000,000
103.32
-11.4
0.99
IBOXXSubSovREG
XS0259231974
BNG
4.125
28-Jun-16
-2,000,000,000
108.25
-18.2
0.97
IBOXXSubSovPBK
DE000A1KRHP2
FMS
2.75
03-Jun-16
-3,000,000,000
102.78
-9.4
0.94
IBOXXSubSovAGN
XS0638499367
Westpac Sec. NZ Ltd
3.5
16-Jun-16
-1,000,000,000
103.39
-5.2
0.97
iBoxxCovNZ
FR0011059930
BNP Paribas Public S
3.125
09-Jun-16
-1,000,000,000
103.07
-5.3
0.96
IBOXXCovFR
FR0011056126
Societe Generale
3.25
06-Jun-16
-1,500,000,000
103.16
-0.9
0.95
IBOXXCovFR
XS0640889803
Aktia R/E Mtge Bank
3.125
22-Jun-16
-600,000,000
103.05
-11.0
0.99
iBoxxCovFI2
ES0414950560
Caja de Madrid
5.75
29-Jun-16
-1,000,000,000
111.11
14.3
0.96
iBoxxCovES
ES0413900251
Santander
4.625
21-Jun-16
-1,000,000,000
104.36
6.1
0.99
iBoxxCovES
ES0413440266
Banesto
3.75
17-Jun-16
-500,000,000
103.54
4.6
0.98
iBoxxCovES
ES0347785000
Im Ced 9
4.25
09-Jun-16
-1,275,000,000
103.82
26.5
0.95
iBoxxCovES
DE000A1KRJA0
ING-DiBa
2.75
29-Jun-16
-500,000,000
105.46
-14.6
0.98
IBOXXCovDE
12
29 June 2015
Cross Asset Strategy | Fixed Income Joint Venture
ISIN
Issuer
Coupon
Maturity
Nominal
Dirty Price
ASW Spread
Mod Duration
Sub-Index
DE000LB0B9J0
LB-BW
2.25
21-Jun-16
-1,375,000,000
102.21
-13.8
0.99
IBOXXCovDE
DE000AAR0116
Aareal Bank
3.125
14-Jun-16
-500,000,000
103.07
-8.7
0.97
IBOXXCovDE
DE000DB7URS2
Deutsche Bk
3.75
09-Jun-16
-1,000,000,000
103.70
-6.1
0.96
IBOXXCovDE
DE000WLB6AL0
LB Hessen-Thu
4.125
08-Jun-16
-1,450,000,000
104.07
-5.0
0.95
IBOXXCovDE
DE000HV2ADJ6
Unicredit
2.875
07-Jun-16
-1,000,000,000
102.83
-4.6
0.95
IBOXXCovDE
DE000HSH3065
HSH Nordbk
1.125
06-Jun-16
-500,000,000
101.06
-3.0
0.95
IBOXXCovDE
XS0632934583
UBS
3
06-Jun-16
-1,000,000,000
102.91
-1.2
0.95
iBoxxCovCH2
XS0432079381
Erste Bank
4.25
08-Jun-16
-1,087,000,000
104.11
2.1
0.95
iBoxxCovAT
FR0011289230
Gaz de France
2.625
20-Jul-22
-661,327,000
111.35
40.8
6.35
IBOXXCorpUTI
XS0827573766
ESB FINANCE
6.25
11-Sep-17
-600,000,000
117.54
29.0
2.05
IBOXXCorpUTI
XS0371990952
Anglian Water Serv
6.25
27-Jun-16
-500,000,000
112.19
7.1
0.95
IBOXXCorpUTI
XS0257885086
Nederlandse Gasunie
4.25
20-Jun-16
-700,000,000
103.96
3.4
0.98
IBOXXCorpUTI
XS0258428712
Fortum
4.5
20-Jun-16
-750,000,000
104.14
13.0
0.98
IBOXXCorpUTI
XS0256997007
EDP Fin
4.625
13-Jun-16
-500,000,000
103.67
61.4
0.96
IBOXXCorpUTI
XS0257807957
Vodafone Gr
4.75
14-Jun-16
-500,000,000
104.38
17.1
0.97
IBOXXCorpTLS
DE000A0GTCB9
Dt Telekom Int Fin
4.75
31-May-16
-500,000,000
104.50
16.6
0.93
IBOXXCorpTLS
XS0633014427
BP Cap Mkt
3.472
01-Jun-16
-850,000,000
103.22
15.9
0.93
IBOXXCorpOGS
XS0432810116
Novartis Fin. SA
4.25
15-Jun-17
-1,500,000,000
104.05
1.7
0.97
IBOXXCorpHCR
XS0432070752
Pfizer
4.75
03-Jun-16
-2,000,000,000
104.52
13.6
0.94
IBOXXCorpHCR
FR0010333385
Cie Deint-Gobain
4.875
31-May-16
-700,000,000
104.50
28.1
0.93
IBOXXCorpCNS
BASF
4.5
29-Jun-16
-500,000,000
108.77
-3.1
0.97
IBOXXCorpCHM
XS0254808214
Solvay Fin
6.375
02-Jun-16
-500,000,000
104.02
228.3
0.92
IBOXXCorpCHM
XS0435070288
Lloyds Bk
6.375
17-Jun-16
-1,326,064,000
106.10
9.8
0.98
IBOXXCorpBNK
XS0637844605
JP Morgan Chase
3.75
15-Jun-16
-1,000,000,000
103.52
6.0
0.97
IBOXXCorpBNK
XS0433130456
Bank of America
7
15-Jun-16
-1,500,000,000
106.65
17.7
0.97
IBOXXCorpBNK
XS0257496694
HSBC Fin
4.5
14-Jun-16
-750,000,000
104.25
8.8
0.97
IBOXXCorpBNK
XS1074244317
Santan Con Bk
1
10-Jun-16
-500,000,000
100.66
20.1
0.96
IBOXXCorpBNK
XS0940658361
BOI
2.75
05-Jun-16
-500,000,000
101.90
75.0
0.94
IBOXXCorpBNK
XS0255300633
Bq Fed Credit
4.375
31-May-16
-1,800,000,000
104.17
15.1
0.93
IBOXXCorpBNK
FR0012188456
Vallourec
2.25
30-Sep-24
-500,000,000
89.15
241.9
7.95
IBOXXCorpBAS
FR0011149947
Vallourec
4.25
14-Feb-17
-650,000,000
105.43
160.0
1.58
IBOXXCorpBAS
XS0633111207
VW Leasing
3.375
03-Jun-16
-750,000,000
103.12
16.3
0.94
IBOXXCorpATO
NL0009819671
Netherlands
2.5
15-Jan-17
-315,000,000
105.27
-27.7
1.54
IBOXXSovNL
NL0000102283
Netherlands
4
15-Jul-16
-125,000,000
108.17
-32.3
1.02
IBOXXSovNL
FR0011857218
France
0.25
25-Nov-16
-65,000,000
100.74
-26.2
1.42
IBOXXSovFR
ES00000124H4
Spain
5.15
31-Oct-44
-25,000,000
139.22
182.4
16.73
IBOXXSovES
ES00000121S7
Spain
4.7
30-Jul-41
-106,400,000
131.07
166.5
15.77
IBOXXSovES
ES00000120N0
Spain
4.9
30-Jul-40
-90,000,000
134.55
167.2
15.27
IBOXXSovES
ES0000012932
Spain
4.2
31-Jan-37
-5,000,000
119.47
148.4
14.57
IBOXXSovES
ES00000122T3
Spain
4.85
31-Oct-20
-3,100,000
121.92
68.0
4.71
IBOXXSovES
ES00000124I2
Spain
2.1
30-Apr-17
-5,100,000
103.73
12.3
1.83
IBOXXSovES
ES00000120J8
Spain
3.8
31-Jan-17
-15,300,000
107.25
9.7
1.56
IBOXXSovES
ES00000123W5
Spain
3.3
30-Jul-16
-15,000,000
106.43
-1.0
1.07
IBOXXSovES
BE0000291972
Belgium
5.5
28-Mar-28
-739,939,136
147.10
19.4
9.88
IBOXXSovBE
BE0000321308
Belgium
4.25
28-Sep-21
-955,000,000
125.65
-15.0
5.53
IBOXXSovBE
FR0011261924
Gaz de France
3
01-Feb-23
-91,265,000
112.91
41.0
6.80
IBOXXCorpUTI
FR0010952770
Gaz de France
3.5
18-Oct-22
-44,228,000
118.80
23.5
6.44
IBOXXCorpUTI
XS0213026197
CitiGroup
4.25
25-Feb-25
-175,761,000
117.83
118.8
7.99
IBOXXCorpBNK
DE000A0JRFB0
Retirements
Source: Markit, Commerzbank Research * These issues do not have a confirmed rating as at the date of publication. ** Commerzbank forecast of planned auction. Timing and amount may differ. *** Commerzbank forecast of planned new issue. Timing, amount, coupon or other details may not have been known at the time of writing. Derived data such as duration is only a forecast.
29 June 2015
13
Cross Asset Strategy | Fixed Income Joint Venture
iBoxx £ Currently we have no new bonds joining the GBP indices and five bonds leaving the indices. As a result, the duration of the iBoxx £ Overall index is expected to drop by 0.02, while the duration of the iBoxx Gilt index will decline by c. 0.02. CHART 4: Historical and projected duration extensions iBoxx £ Overall vs. iBoxx Gilt 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1
Jul-14
Nov-14 iBoxx GBP Overall
Mar-15
Jul-15
iBoxx Gilt
Source: Markit, Commerzbank Research
14
29 June 2015
Cross Asset Strategy | Fixed Income Joint Venture
iBoxx £ roll impact TABLE 19: Projected impact on selected iBoxx £ indices Modified Duration Index
Change
Based on £1bn invested
Avg asset swap spread
New
Roll Costs
Cap. Inflow
Change
New 55.8
iBoxx £ Overall
0.02
9.41
-4,430
3,500,044
-0.2
iBoxx£ Gilt
0.03
10.16
-5,606
5,730,752
0.0
24.6
iBoxx£ Gilt 1-3
0.00
1.88
0
0
0.0
-36.7
iBoxx£ Gilt 3-5
0.00
3.67
0
0
0.0
-26.6
iBoxx£ Gilt 5-7
0.00
5.25
0
0
0.0
-19.8
iBoxx£ Gilt 7-10
0.00
7.55
0
0
0.0
-7.4
iBoxx£ Gilt 10+
-0.02
16.39
-11,803
12,065,516
-0.1
37.4
iBoxx£ Collateralized
0.00
8.74
0
0
0.0
133.0
iBoxx£ Coll 1-3
0.00
1.93
0
0
0.0
34.0
iBoxx£ Coll 3-5
0.16
3.92
-1,053,956
119,633,210
14.3
136.4
iBoxx£ Coll 5-7
0.38
5.55
-7,727,424
241,075,921
-18.9
62.0
iBoxx£ Coll 7-10
0.13
7.22
-1,089,616
-1,511,091
12.1
113.9
iBoxx£ Coll 10+
0.18
11.58
0
-48,574,695
0.0
148.2
iBoxx£ Corporate
0.02
7.74
-1,699
-3,481,115
0.1
178.7
iBoxx£ Corp AAA
0.00
13.77
0
0
0.0
81.4
iBoxx£ Corp AA
0.00
8.74
0
0
0.0
127.4
iBoxx£ Corp A
0.04
8.48
-15,609
-8,064,020
0.1
169.4
iBoxx£ Corp BBB
0.02
6.76
-28,341
-230,851
-0.1
206.9
iBoxx£ Corp Financials
0.03
6.74
0
-5,490,566
0.1
186.6
iBoxx£ Banks
0.02
6.36
0
-4,188,892
0.0
180.1
iBoxx£ Fin Services
0.07
7.78
0
-11,116,939
0.2
136.1
iBoxx£ Insurance
0.04
6.72
0
-7,074,155
0.2
251.8
iBoxx£ Corp Non-Fin
0.01
8.40
-2,829
-2,144,446
0.1
174.5
iBoxx£ Automobiles
-0.01
3.27
-65,365
23,417,897
-0.7
68.0
iBoxx£ Basic Resources
0.00
7.88
0
0
0.0
154.7
iBoxx£ Chemicals
0.00
4.72
0
0
0.0
107.5
iBoxx£ Construction
0.44
5.86
0
-88,035,217
0.1
147.7
iBoxx£ Food and Beverages
0.00
5.66
0
0
0.0
115.2
iBoxx£ HealthCare
0.00
12.09
0
0
0.0
155.9
iBoxx£ Ind Goods and vs
0.08
8.21
0
-10,973,911
0.1
157.9
iBoxx£ Media
0.00
6.99
0
0
0.0
201.4
iBoxx£ Energy
0.00
6.89
0
0
0.0
130.9
iBoxx£ Pers&Househ. Goods
0.00
6.87
0
0
0.0
152.7
iBoxx£ Retail
0.00
10.13
0
0
0.0
140.4
iBoxx£ Technology
0.00
5.00
0
0
0.0
41.8
iBoxx£ Travel & Leisure
0.00
6.97
0
0
0.0
143.2
iBoxx£ Telecoms
0.00
8.38
0
0
0.0
199.4
iBoxx£ Utilities
0.01
9.38
0
-3,254,612
0.2
192.8
Source: Markit, Commerzbank Research
29 June 2015
15
Cross Asset Strategy | Fixed Income Joint Venture
iBoxx £ projected composition changes TABLE 20: Projected composition changes to the iBoxx € Indices ISIN
Issuer Coupon
Maturity
Nominal
Dirty Price
ASW Spread
Mod Duration
Sub-Index
IBoxxGCorpCNS
Deletions XS0129066923
Aggregate Ind
7.25
31-May-16
-162,934,000
105.62
137.7
0.92
XS0112487482
Rolls Royce
7.375
14-Jun-16
-200,000,000
106.14
42.7
0.96
IBoxxGCorpIGS
XS0066877258
Aviva
9.5
20-Jun-16
-200,000,000
107.95
51.2
0.97
IBOXXGCorpINS
XS0257741834
UBS
5.25
21-Jun-16
-163,079,000
102.86
137.2
0.97
IBOXXGCorpBNK
Coventry Build.Soc.
6.092
29-Jun-16
-120,000,000
104.98
210.4
0.95
IBOXXGCorpBNK
XS0975541961
IBRD
1.25
02-Oct-17
150,000,000
101.33
-15.5
2.21
IBOXXGSup
XS0922187678
FMS
0.75
15-Dec-17
275,000,000
99.37
-9.7
2.42
IBOXXGAgn
XS1015890210
Daimler
2.375
16-Jul-18
200,000,000
103.71
36.3
2.87
IBoxxGCorpATO
GB00B177CL57 Taps
GB00BTHH2R79
UK
2
07-Sep-25
3,250,000,000
98.09
0.6
9.11
IBOXXGilt
GB00BN65R313
UK
3.5
22-Jan-45
2,199,952,000
114.83
41.2
18.86
IBOXXGilt
GB00B06YGN05
UK
4.25
07-Dec-55
750,000,000
137.85
40.1
22.31
IBOXXGilt
Retirements XS0453299173
Motability Ops
5.25
28-Sep-16
-200,000,000
106.26
32.0
1.21
IBoxxGCorpFSV
FR0010721704
Gaz de France
6.125
11-Feb-21
-215,750,000
121.41
57.3
4.80
IBOXXGCorpUTI
XS0116066449
CitiGroup
6.5
16-Aug-30
-18,667,000
135.72
175.4
9.94
IBOXXGCorpBNK
Source: Commerzbank Research
16
29 June 2015
Cross Asset Strategy | Fixed Income Joint Venture
Distribution of ratings: Number of recommendations from Commerzbank, CMResearch, at the end of the first quarter 2015
thereof recommendations for issuers to which investment banking services were provided during the preceding twelve months
88 (43.5%) Buy / Add
24 (64.7%)
92 (45.6%) Hold
11 (29.8%)
22 (10.9%) Sell / Reduce
2 (5.5%)
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Cross Asset Strategy | Fixed Income Joint Venture
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