2014 Job Market Perspectives. Prepare for what s next in your career.

2014 Job Market Perspectives Prepare for what’s next in your career.

With low to moderate growth anticipated in 2014 and job openings climbing to highs not seen for five years, a more optimistic outlook may mean increased turnover as more employees seek to change jobs as opportunities begin to open up.

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2014 Job Market Perspectives

2014 Job Market Perspectives Lee Hecht Harrison’s 2014 Job Market Perspectives report explores key events that influenced employers and employees in 2013 and identifies emerging trends that will act as potential game changers in 2014. We hope you find this report helpful in understanding the job market and its impact on employment. After six years of sustained growth, the US GDP and stock market have recovered. And while employment and the housing market may still be lagging behind 2009 levels, these economic indicators began enjoying growth in 2013.

A Look Back...................................................................................................................... 2 The Economy and Job Market............................................................................ 6 The Global Climate...................................................................................................... 8 Employment Trends.................................................................................................. 10 Regional Insights......................................................................................................... 12 Career Trends................................................................................................................ 14 Recruiting Trends......................................................................................................... 16 Where the Jobs Are.................................................................................................. 18 The Path Forward.....................................................................................................IBC





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1

A Look Back

Cautious optimism and slow progress define 2013 With growth and organizational agility top priorities for many organizations last year, businesses began cautiously hiring new employees, investing in the development of their talent and redeploying their existing workforces to create greater alignment with business requirements. Unemployment rates continued to slowly decline and optimism began to increase as workers felt more confident about their job prospects and began to seek out new opportunities. After six years of sustained growth, the US GDP and stock market have recovered. And while employment and the housing market may still be lagging behind 2009 levels, these economic indicators began enjoying growth in 2013. The country has experienced 46 months of private-sector job growth from February 2010 to December 2013 with job growth averaging 182,000 added jobs over the past year.1 Nevertheless, the path toward economic recovery will be slow and steady in 2014, as workers and employers are still facing a variety of challenges. The national unemployment rate declined to 7.0% in 2013, and while the number of long-term unemployed dropped by 718,000 over the year, at 4.1 million they still comprised 37% of the unemployed.2 Another factor that affected the mood of the country was the budget stalemate in Washington, DC which fueled growing dissatisfaction with the federal government and stalled consumer confidence. For many employees, the lingering effect of the recession’s lack of opportunity and the continued demand to do more with less fostered unrest—with a recent Gallup study reporting that only 13% of employees worldwide are engaged at work.3 As the economy picks up and hiring

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2014 Job Market Perspectives

We anticipate that organizations in the healthcare, information technology, science, and business and professional services sectors will continue to add jobs at a healthy pace in 2014.

37% While the number of long-term unemployed dropped by 718,000 over the year, at 4.1 million they still comprised 37% of the unemployed.

increases, retention will be a major concern for employers. LHH research concludes that organizations with engaged employees have higher retention rates, supporting the positive correlation between engagement and retention—as one increases, the other also improves. Therefore, as the job market becomes more robust, engagement must become a vital part of any retention strategy. One of the most pronounced employment trends has been the marked increase in the use of contingent workers. Buoyed by the promise of portable healthcare plans, more and more workers no longer feel tied to an organization due to insurance needs. While some of the new independent contractors are those workers who simply haven’t found full-time work, others in this category enjoy the flexibility and variety freelancing provides. This fluid model has driven the growth of cloud-based freelance marketplaces, while the use of social media facilitates the connections needed for organizations to find the best talent and for freelancers to find the most reputable employers.

One of the most pronounced employment trends has been the marked increase in the use of contingent workers.

We anticipate that organizations in the healthcare, information technology, science, and business and professional services sectors will continue to add jobs at a healthy pace in 2014. More Baby Boomers will be exiting the workforce while Millennials will be assuming new leadership positions. The role of higher education will be an increasingly important factor in the workforce, with an emphasis on attaining the skills that will be needed in the future economy. Lee Hecht Harrison’s 2014 Job Market Perspectives report explores these key trends impacting employers and employees in the next year. We hope you find this report helpful in understanding the job market and its impact on employment.





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2013 Timeline While 2013 was defined by continuing economic and political challenges, it also offered a healthy dose of optimism as the US stock market rebounded and the US unemployment rate continued to decline.

05 : May 01 : January

A US government budget sequestration begins, bringing a series of automatic, acrossthe-board cuts to defense and domestic discretionary spending, totaling $1.2 trillion over 10 years.

The 2012-2013 North American Drought, which originated in the midst of a record-breaking heat wave and low winter snowfall, continued to inflict catastrophic economic damage for the affected states, as well as Mexico and eastern Canada.

02 : February

04 : April

06 : June

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closes above 14,000 points for the first time since 2007 as investors respond to strong economic data from the United States.

Confirming the shift to tablets and smartphones, worldwide sales of personal computers fall 14% during the first quarter of 2013, the largest drop since tracking began in 1994.

The US government comes under heavy criticism at home and abroad when news of its secret PRISM surveillance program to monitor emails and other personal information is leaked by Edward Snowden, former CIA contract employee.

The US Senate and House approve a last-minute budget deal to avoid the “fiscal cliff,” but put off sequestration until March 1, 2013, to avoid damaging an already-tenuous economic recovery.

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2014 Job Market Perspectives

03 : March

11 : November

Due to concerns about a weakening economy, the Federal Reserve decides to leave stimulus program in place, as the impact of government spending cuts continues to hamper growth.

Greece is first developed market to be demoted and moved to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The European Commission predicts Greece’s economy will expand by 0.6% in 2014, ending it’s six-year recession. With the worst of the great Greek depression over, companies still standing and generating revenue are attractive to investors.

08 : August

10 : October

12 : December

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos announces his purchase of The Washington Post for $250 million, while another merger—between American Airlines and US Airways —is hit by the filing of a lawsuit by the US Justice Department and attorneys general from six states concerning the lack of competition and higher fares that will arise from the merger.

The night before the debt ceiling deadline (October 17), both the House and Senate approve a bill to fund the government and raise the debt limit until early 2014, ending the 16-day government shutdown.

A federal budget compromise directing government spending into 2015 passes the Senate, warding off the chances of another major shutdown.

07 : July

The City of Detroit files for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection in federal court, making it the largest US city to do so and laying the groundwork for a bailout of a city overwhelmed by billions of dollars in debt and decades of mismanagement, population flight and loss of tax revenue.

09 : September





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5

The Economy and Job Market

Moderate growth prevails A slow but steady US economic recovery was thrown off balance by the partial shutdown of the government and the ongoing sequester. It’s estimated that reduced government output and damage to both consumer and business confidence could result in a 0.6 percentage point reduction of annualized fourth-quarter gross domestic product. The prospect of a new budget deal and increase in the country’s debt ceiling in early 2014 will help to ease concerns and increase confidence. Here are some key indicators to watch in 2014: Housing and Auto Sales

In 2013, bank lending conditions eased slowly from tight levels, and credit growth increased. It’s estimated that by early 2014, median housing prices will have climbed about 7.2% from 2010 levels. In the third quarter of 2013, the national year-over-year median housing price gain realized the strongest annual growth in eight years.4 While construction still lags, residential and nonresidential specialty trade contractors have experienced growth. An uptick in the housing market is expected to continue with the return of the 5% down payment—good news for construction firms and landscaping, appliance, furniture and other related businesses. An increase in interest rates, however, has stalled the lucrative housing refinancing market, resulting in recent layoffs in the mortgage servicing industry. In the fall of 2013, US auto sales were up 10.4% compared to the previous year. Over the first 10 months of 2013, almost 38% of all vehicle sales in the US went to Michigan-based automakers, which could bode well for auto-related manufacturing in 2014.5

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Consumer Confidence and Retail

The economic confidence index gradually increased through the first three quarters of 2013, but took a sharp—albeit brief—decline in early October when the partial government shutdown began. American consumers are assuming loans for long-term big-ticket items (cars, houses) rather than spending in stores. This is reflected in the fall of consumers’ revolving credit, typically on credit cards, and an increase in non-revolving loans. The continued job shortage and weak income growth have curtailed consumers’ retail spending, as many are more reluctant to build large credit card debt than they were in the past. Retail numbers were picking up in the fall, with the exception of clothing sales. In terms of wages, retail and fast-food workers protested for an increase in the minimum wage and, although the federal government has yet to act, several states have enacted increases.6 Sequestration

While the effects of sequestration have largely gone unnoticed by the general public, the consequences are continuing to harm a still-struggling economy. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the sequestration will be responsible for the loss of up to 1.6 million jobs through 2014 with 100,000 of those in federal government. In reference to the defense sector, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel maintains that furloughs to civilian defense workers caused by sequestration have created “a military whose readiness remains seriously degraded.” 7 Healthcare has been especially impacted. The National Institutes of Health alone will register $3 billion in lost economic activity and 20,500 lost jobs. Other healthcare providers are reducing staff and refusing to accept Medicare patients due to reduced government reimbursements. Furthermore, more than 3.8 million of the long-term unemployed have experienced the expiration of the federal extension of state unemployment benefits.

Affordable Care Act

While it’s too early to gauge the full impact of the Affordable Care Act on the job market, many economists believe any cuts in jobs will be offset by increases in others. However, because the ACA implements rules that end medical underwriting and pre-existing condition exclusions for most medical policies, insurance companies began restructuring in the fourth quarter with subsequent job cuts. On the upside, despite its bumpy start, the ACA is expected to spur growth in entrepreneurship and independent contracting as individuals moving from employer-based insurance coverage to affordable, portable individual policies will no longer be tethered to jobs simply because of insurance.8

38% Almost 38% of all vehicle sales in the US went to Michiganbased automakers, which could bode well for auto-related manufacturing in 2014.





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7

The Global Climate

A look at the world economic situation Although the global economy has yet to fully recover from the crisis of 2008-2009, global growth for 2014 remains a combination of cautious optimism for improved conditions in mature economies and a slower growth rate in major emerging markets. The US will be leading much of the recovery, but a failure by Congress to raise the nation’s debt ceiling in early 2014 could put the economy into a tailspin with global repercussions. Another risk is geopolitical instability— especially in Egypt and Syria. Nevertheless, the second quarter of 2013 marked the first time in 30 months that the Euro, Japanese and US economies all posted positive growth.9 Europe

Economists predict modest recovery throughout the euro zone, with old debt stalling the influx of new credit required to finance growth, especially in Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece. Among the four biggest euro zone economies, only Germany and France are set to grow, while most of the currency union’s southern members will rebound slowly.10 In the United Kingdom, recent indicators point to an improving economy with increased consumer and business confidence; however, failure to revive credit would hamper the recovery in the housing market and wider economy.11 As in the US, the EU healthcare sector continues to grow due to an aging population, technological advances and heightened focus on preventative care.12 Asia-Pacific

With its high regional integration, any economic slowdown in China or in other large Asian economies would have a ripple effect on Asia as a whole. Asia continues to contribute 40% of the world’s GDP growth, but would also be negatively impacted by any reduction in monetary stimulus

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2014 Job Market Perspectives

from developed countries. Excluding China, the region is expected to grow at 5.3% in 2014.13 While domestic demand continues to drive growth, investment growth is moderating in the larger economies of ASEAN, including Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. The steady increase of Asia’s middle class, corresponding to the area’s higher wages, means that Asian-produced goods are becoming more expensive, and some US companies are finding it advantageous to move manufacturing jobs back to the States. As a result, China will continue to shift from an export-driven economy to one focused on domestic demand. For most Asian countries, one obstacle to achieving a more advanced economy is the high cost of starting and operating a business.14, 15 North America

The strengthening of the US economy will have a positive impact on Canada’s agricultural, manufacturing and servicerelated exports. However, high levels of consumer debt will stifle consumer spending in Canada and may slow activity in the residential construction sector. Growth in the US is expected to improve due to strong private consumption and low interest rates, but could be curtailed by the falling rate of US personal income. American companies are also “reshoring” manufacturing due to rising costs in Asia and the desire to shorten supply lines. Most corporate investment will focus on new equipment and technology in an effort to increase productivity and reduce labor costs.16 The rapid expansion of US shale production has lowered manufacturing costs and is expected to raise GDP by $70 billion each year for the next several decades. 17

Latin America

Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) remains slow with the region’s output projected to grow 3% in 2014. Brazil, the largest economy in the region, continued to recover from a slowdown in early 2013, and growth in Mexico is projected to return to 3% in 2014. Energy shortages and exchange controls are slowing economic activity in Venezuela, while Argentina, despite being constrained by foreign exchange, has recovered due to a strong harvest. Latin America’s strong dependence on commodities presents a significant external risk in the event of a major drop in commodity prices.18

The second quarter of 2013 marked the first time in 30 months that the Euro, Japanese and US economies all posted positive growth.

Africa and Middle East

In 2013, growth in the region stalled due to declining oil production, but with improved global economic conditions, easing of political uncertainties and a recovery in oil production, growth is expected to accelerate in 2014. In Lebanon, the proximity of the conflict in Syria and the influx of refugees will continue to shake confidence and discourage tourism, while political and security issues in Tunisia will dampen its economic outlook. Civil unrest continues to flare up in Egypt with clashes between Egyptian security forces and supporters of ousted president Morsi resulting in the death and wounding of hundreds of citizens. These political transitions have slowed growth in some of the Middle Eastern economies. Africa’s economy is growing faster than that of every other continent, with about one third of its nations registering a yearly gain in gross domestic product of more than 6%. 19 One of the factors driving that growth is technology, specifically the proliferation of smartphones. The rising use of the Internet is having a “transformative effect” on the continent’s development and could add $300 billion a year to its gross domestic product (GDP) by 2025, says global consulting firm McKinsey.20 In Sub-Saharan Africa, continued investment in infrastructure and productive capacity will boost growth in 2014, with output projected to expand by 6% in 2014. Growth in Nigeria and South Africa may be weaker as they struggle with domestic problems and softer external demand. 21





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Employment Trends

Are you ready for your close-up?

Technology in the Workplace: Video Presence Is the New Competency

As wireless communication and video technology continue to evolve, today’s workplace is changing dramatically. You’re just as likely to be meeting virtually via videoconference as you are to meet in person. It’s crucial for employees at all levels to develop communication skills that demonstrate aptitude in front of the camera. Organizations are turning to video technology as a cost-effective means to conduct virtual conferences, training sessions and screening interviews. An increasing number of businesses are using videoconferencing to boost collaboration in a workforce comprised of a mix of virtual and in-office personnel. And technical advancements in mobile collaboration have extended video capabilities beyond brick-and-mortar locations to anywhere there’s Internet access. In the midst of all this change, have you thought about your own video presence? Today, well-qualified job seekers and employees who are unprepared to present themselves via recorded or live video may find themselves overlooked for opportunities. Managers frequently cite poor communication skills as the most prevalent weakness in employees; nevertheless, even individuals with excellent communication skills require deliberate practice and self-evaluation to develop a level of comfort in front of a camera. As technology advances, innovative applications for the use of video in the workplace will continue, underscoring the importance of developing a confident video presence for job search and career success. Here are a few ways organizations are incorporating video technology into all aspects of the workplace:

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Virtual Career Fairs

In the job search, virtual career fairs provide job seekers with direct connections to recruiters, hiring managers and prospective employers. Organizations are turning to virtual career fairs as a cost-effective and efficient means to reach a broader group of job seekers, screen potential candidates and uncover top talent. Innovative career transition programs are employing this advanced social technology to provide their candidates with introductions to decisionmakers and a heightened level of visibility with prospective employers. Instead of relying on a static job board, a virtual career fair offers employees the personal interaction needed to make themselves known, expand critical networks and uncover new opportunities. Most take place in a webbased simulated environment, leveraging Skype and active chat to facilitate live conversations. Circulating in a virtual networking lounge or exhibition hall, job seekers visit company booths and meet live with employers and recruiters to discuss their specific skills and experience, breaking down geographic boundaries and exposing job seekers to new possibilities otherwise unavailable.

Prepare to Succeed in Your Next Interview

Videoconferences

In an interview, you may have as few as seven seconds to make a good first impression. Learn to sell yourself as the best candidate for the position by practicing your interviewing techniques. Start with a smartphone, video camera or webcam. Select a few common interview questions. Record yourself responding to the questions. Then review and evaluate your responses, your posture and your body language. Viewing the recording will provide you with valuable insight that will help you identify areas for improvement. After assessing, rerecord until you’ve perfected your technique. Through practice, you’ll learn to feel more at ease in front of the camera, and you’ll develop strong presentation skills that will allow you to interview with confidence. Your enhanced skills will help you not only interview persuasively, but network more effectively and excel in all areas of your search that depend on your ability to communicate well.

With today’s emphasis on telecommuting and decentralized workforces across multiple time zones, videoconferencing offers a cost-effective solution for delivering presentations and conducting meetings with virtual teams. Video chats are also a good substitute for electronic communications, providing enhanced opportunity for one-on-one interactions that can boost productivity. However, a lack of preparation can derail a videoconference or video chat. Using video for meetings, presentations and one-on-one conversations demands specific skills and etiquette. Without the proper training, your presentation or contribution to the meeting will be ineffective. What do you need to know? It’s important to avoid making rapid movements, shuffling papers, fidgeting or conducting side conversations. You do want to act and speak naturally, sit still and take transmission delays into account by pausing for others to comment.

Web-Based Interviewing

A dramatic increase in screening interviews conducted via webcam means each job seeker must be acutely aware of the nonverbal communication that can be the decisive factor in a hiring decision: honing a concise, articulate message; making eye contact with the camera; dressing appropriately, controlling gestures and facial expressions; and establishing an uncluttered, professional background. Recorded interviews have also gained in popularity with staffing firms and recruiters requesting video-recorded profiles to be used for screening purposes. Without access to the latest video technology and proper training to create a dynamic video presence, even highly qualified candidates are placed at a distinct disadvantage and may be overlooked or screened out of the hiring process.



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Employment Trends

Regional insights

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West Region

Northeast Region

2013 Annual Unemployment Rate Through November: 7.6%

2013 Annual Unemployment Rate Through November: 7.3%

Hot Sectors IT, professional and business services, leisure and hospitality

Hot Sectors Education and health services, professional and business services, mining

Strongest Metropolitan Areas San Francisco, Seattle, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Portland, Boulder, Boise City-Nampa

Strongest Metropolitan Areas Boston, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, New York

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2014 Job Market Perspectives

Midwest Region

South Region

2013 Annual Unemployment Rate Through November: 6.9%

2012 Annual Unemployment Rate Through November: 6.7%

Hot Sectors Mining, manufacturing, professional and business services, education/health services, hospitality

Hot Sectors Mining, engineering, retail, trade and transportation, professional and business services, education/health services, hospitality

Strongest Metropolitan Areas Milwaukee, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Kansas City, Des Moines-West Des Moines, Indianapolis

Strongest Metropolitan Areas Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Phoenix, Oklahoma City, Raleigh-Durham, Tampa-St. Petersburg





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Career Trends

The transformation of higher education After years of steady tuition increases and enrollment growth, American universities were shocked into a new reality when enrollment declined by almost a half million in 2012.23 This global trend away from higher education may have dire consequences for future economies. According to the McKinsey Global Institute, “By 2020, the global workforce is predicted to have 40 million fewer workers with college degrees, in addition to 95 million more low-skill workers than employers will need—highlighting a growing mismatch between the skills that employers want and what the global labor market is able to supply, as well as the potential looming threat of long-term joblessness for many.”24 As a result of the plunging enrollment figures, many universities have been forced to not only furlough staff, but to develop innovative learning programs that meet the needs of part-time and nontraditional students. For students, the lack of available jobs upon graduation and the continued escalation of tuition costs have made them reconsider the long-term burden of student-loan debt as compared to the employment opportunities a college degree presents. Consequently, instead of traditional four-year programs, students are changing the educational landscape—opting for flexible, affordable and student-driven programs through a combination of community colleges, universities and online providers. They’re attending multiple institutions— sometimes concurrently—taking breaks between semesters and extending the length of time to graduation. The student demographic has morphed into a more diverse population, many of whom have full-time jobs and children. The highereducation community is responding to these changes with a few of their own.25

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MOOCs

Massive Online Open Courses (MOOCs) are free non-degree online courses with open unlimited global enrollment to anyone, regardless of their current educational level. While some universities have offered MOOCs for a few years, other top-notch universities (including the University of Michigan, University of California - Berkeley, Stanford, Princeton, Johns Hopkins, Wharton and the University of Virginia) have just recently joined forces to offer hundreds of free courses through a vast array of MOOC sites. Courses range from technology to business to the humanities. Some offer multimedia delivery, student-instructor interaction, free downloadable textbooks and a certificate of completion. Online Degree Courses

Recognizing the need for a more flexible approach to education, many prestigious universities are now offering a wide array of online courses as a standard part of their degree programs. Still, while online courses are convenient, studies have shown that students in online classes are more likely to withdraw from or fail classes than those in traditional classes. A blend of online and traditional classes may be a better approach. To maximize learning effectiveness, universities must adapt online learning content to the medium—developing a high level of video production (including simulations and animation) and including opportunities for group discussion and interaction with faculty.26

Competency-Based Degree Programs

Recognizing the need for a more flexible approach to education, many prestigious universities are now offering a wide array of online courses as a standard part of their degree programs.

While virtual-degree colleges are increasingly gaining acceptance, another online higher-education trend is the development of low-cost, competency-based programs that allow students to graduate faster by awarding credit for experience and knowledge demonstrated rather than the amount of time spent in class. Students progress through selfpaced, virtual classes and are evaluated through testing on the course competencies. Driven by rising tuition fees, the “$10,000 degree” is just getting off the ground in a few states. Though offering a limited number of degrees, the competency-based program may be a viable alternative for students who balk at the cost of a traditional four-year program. Private Technical and Trade Schools

Growth in technical and trade school enrollment is expected to continue as individuals seek additional skills to compete in the tight job market. Because the demand for certain trades has decreased, enrollees should first research the local job market to determine the most relevant and profitable course of study, and avoid being taken in by overly assertive marketing pitches from trade school recruiters. Trade unions still offer apprenticeships to attract new employees to their fields. Apprentice opportunities may be located through individual trade organizations or the website for an individual state’s Department of Labor.





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Recruiting Trends

Why the future of sourcing and recruiting is social With the rise of “Big Data” and social recruiting, the hiring process is being transformed. Recruiters and hiring managers will soon have access to newly developed tools that utilize vast amounts of candidate data gathered online, providing new insight into the skills, qualifications and behaviors of job seekers that will render current semantic technologies obsolete. Meanwhile, research shows that as many as 80% of available jobs are never advertised or published as recruiters and employers increasingly turn to social media to post job openings. Job seekers must develop a social media roadmap to capitalize on the opportunities social recruiting presents, identify job opportunities and capture the attention of the hiring community. According to HR managers, the use of social media has been the biggest change in the sourcing and hiring process over the past two to three years. And looking forward, the use of social media is expected to continue to impact the sourcing and hiring process. With social recruiting poised to eclipse other methods for sourcing talent, one significant benefit is the ability to actively pursue everyone with an Internet footprint in the labor market, broadening the talent pool, creating a much more competitive job market and changing the dynamics of talent acquisition. Using the right keywords, talent is found and pursued. Social profiles and Internet searches provide HR professionals with a wealth of information on skills, experience and accomplishments. Better informed with fact-based data, recruiters and HR managers are no longer constricted to big resume piles, but are proactively finding talent, accelerating the sourcing process and improving hiring decisions. Social media is no longer just a source to identify talent; it’s also part of the assessment process. A CareerBuilder study reports that “nearly 39% of employers use social networking sites to research job candidates, up from 37% last year.” 27

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39% Nearly 39% of employers use social networking sites to research job candidates, up from 37% last year.

Job seekers must counter with a strategic approach to social recruiting. It’s not enough to simply post a profile and collect networking contacts.

The study’s data also reinforces the need to exercise skill in social media activities. Forty-three percent of hiring managers uncovered information on social media sites that factored into their decision not to hire a candidate, compared with 19% who found information favorable to a candidate.28 Job Seekers’ Response

Job seekers must counter with a strategic approach. It’s not enough to simply post a profile and collect networking contacts. By truly connecting—participating in online discussions; posting advice, articles and comments; proactively reaching out to recruiters; and offering assistance and guidance to networking partners—job seekers can heighten their visibility, cultivate their professional online identity and establish themselves as leaders in their field.

Social media sites also provide the job seeker with valuable business intelligence—on the job market, target companies, salaries, industries and occupations.

Social media sites also provide the job seeker with valuable business intelligence—on the job market, target companies, salaries, industries and occupations. Using social networks, job seekers can initiate conversations with recruiters by, for example, asking for information on upcoming networking events or virtual career fairs. These inquiries get the job seeker in front of the recruiter prior to a position even being open. LHH research reveals that referrals, internal job postings and networking are the top three methods for sourcing talent. Interestingly, all share an important commonality. That is, potential candidates are “known.” Social networking provides individuals with online channels to increase their visibility and interactions with peers, colleagues and prospective employers—making themselves known. Job seekers will need to look for opportunities to leverage social media channels in their efforts to be known by establishing new relationships, credentialing themselves and engaging in meaningful activity that establishes rapport and trust. These efforts will drive access to the people, information and opportunities that will help them in their careers.





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Where the Jobs Are

2014 Jobs Forecast29 Accounting

Engineering

Dec. 2012 – Nov. 2013 change in workforce......................... +52,500 jobs

Nov. 2012 – Nov. 2013 change in workforce..........................+31,000 jobs

Number of American workers .............................................................. 957,000

Number of American workers............................................................ 1.4 million

Regions in demand.......................................................... Northeast & Midwest

Regions in demand................................................... Northeast, South & West

Unemployment rate...................................................... (as of Nov. 2013) 4.2%

Unemployment rate....................................................... (as of Nov. 2013) 4.6%

Accounting Jobs Forecast In response to corporate wrongdoing and subsequent regulatory demands, the need to mine financial data to guide business decisions and because of the urgency to replace positions eliminated during the economic downturn, accounting and auditing fields are expected to grow slightly faster than average over the next eight years, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The continued globalization of business will also lead to increased demand for accounting expertise and services specifically pertaining to international trade, mergers and acquisitions. Audits will continue to increase in importance as restricted lending standards force organizations to prove their creditworthiness.

Engineering Jobs Forecast While STEM jobs (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) will continue to help the US in its recovery, they are also increasing opportunities in biomedical engineering, which are projected to increase by an impressive 62% by 2020. This increase is also in response to the aging Baby Boomer population and a subsequent demand for medical devices and other advanced medical technology. Environmental engineering is also projected to grow at a faster-than-average rate, but primarily in the public sector as local and state governments increase water efficiency and retrofit existing buildings with sustainable materials to lower costs and maintain compliance with changing regulations.

Accountants and auditors with professional certifications, especially as Certified Public Accountants (CPA) or Certified Management Accountants (CMA) and those with a master’s degree, will have the best job prospects, as will candidates with experience with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Nevertheless, there will still be fierce competition for accounting jobs with the most prestigious accounting firms. The continued prevalence of, and efforts to curtail, corporate fraud will also provide increased opportunities for forensic accountants with the Certified Fraud Examiner (CFE) credential. Employment of actuaries is expected to grow much faster than the average for all occupations with most growth in the calculation of risk in the heathcare and consulting industries.

Other engineering positions expected to grow, but at a slower rate, include petroleum engineers (17%), marine engineers and naval architects (17%), and civil engineers (19%). In a buyer’s market, organizations will continue to recruit engineers who also possess business acumen and excellent client-relations skills. While job growth in chemical engineering is expected to be slower than average, opportunities are opening up in other industries such as biotech; therefore, chemical engineers are encouraged to remain up to date on emerging technologies. It’s estimated that over 365,000 current engineers are expected to retire by 2020, creating additional opportunities for younger, experienced engineers.

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2014 Job Market Perspectives

Information

Finance

Nov. 2012 – Nov. 2013 change in workforce..............................-1,000 jobs

Nov. 2012 – Nov. 2013 change in workforce.......................... -83,000 jobs

Number of American workers........................................................... 2.7 million

Number of American workers........................................................... 7.8 million

Regions in demand..................................................................Northeast & West

Regions in demand..................................................................Northeast & West

Unemployment rate....................................................... (as of Nov. 2013) 6.4%

Unemployment rate....................................................... (as of Nov. 2013) 4.3%

Information Jobs Forecast Employment categories within the wide-ranging information sector include publishing, motion picture and sound recording, broadcasting and data processing. As the traditional publishing industry declines and opportunities dwindle, competition for newspaper and magazine jobs will be intense. However, job opportunities for editors and writers familiar with social media, news writing and podcasts will continue to grow.

Finance Jobs Forecast Depending on an individual’s skill set and experience, the financial services field is expected to offer additional opportunities as the country recovers from the recession. Candidates holding dual degrees (e.g., Finance/IT; Accounting/MBA) will have the inside track for the top jobs in the financial sector.

Employment of reporters and correspondents is expected to decline slightly (8%) due to the consolidation of news organizations and the decline in television news viewership. However, employment of broadcast news analysts is expected to grow as the 24/7 news cycle demands more analysts to provide commentary on reported events and political issues.

Jobs for financial analysts are projected to increase 23% from 2010 to 2020, faster than the average for all occupations, largely as a result of new financial products. Business analysts with the appropriate IT experience will also be in demand, as will financial examiners and auditors who ensure compliance with new regulations enacted by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Dodd-Frank banking legislation. During the second half of 2013, climbing interest rates negatively impacted the creditand mortgage-related segment. As the Baby Boomer generation nears retirement, the demand for personal financial advisors with the CFP® certification (Certified Financial Planning) will increase 32% as they help individuals manage their assets and advise them on the changing tax laws.





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Where the Jobs Are

2014 Jobs Forecast Healthcare

Legal

Nov. 2012 – Nov. 2013 change in workforce...................... +320,000 jobs

Nov. 2012 – Nov. 2013 change in workforce............................. -2,500 jobs

Number of American workers......................................................... 17.4 million

Number of American workers............................................................. 1.1 million

Regions in demand.................................................................................................. All

Regions in demand.................................................................Northwest & West

Unemployment rate....................................................... (as of Nov. 2013) 4.4%

Unemployment rate....................................................... (as of Nov. 2013) 2.6%

Healthcare Jobs Forecast As a result of an aging population, longer life expectancies, legislative changes associated with the Affordable Care Act and new treatments/technologies, healthcare and its related industries are projected to create about 28% of all new jobs in the US. In fact, 10 of the projected top 30 fastest-growing occupations are healthcare practitioners and healthcare support occupations. This includes home health aides, physical therapy assistants, sonographers, occupational therapy assistants, physical therapy aides, physical therapists and dental hygienists. Registered nurses top the list of the occupations with the largest projected employment growth from 2010 to 2020 with home health aides in third position.

Legal Jobs Forecast After weathering the worst job market in over 20 years, competition will continue to be tough for jobs in the legal profession, with law schools graduating more attorneys than there are jobs available. Employment for lawyers is projected to grow only 10% as practice areas become more specialized in response to more complex laws.

While many hot jobs in the healthcare industry require advanced degrees (e.g., primary care physicians, audiologists, physical therapists), others such as diagnostic medical sonographers (an occupation expected to grow by 44%), require only an associate’s degree or postsecondary certification. Other positions which require limited education and/or training include home health aides (which are projected to grow by a startling 69% from 2010 to 2020), occupational therapy assistants and physical therapy aides. Registered nurses will continue to be in demand due in part to the emphasis placed on preventative care by aging Baby Boomers, and physician assistants will gain in popularity as a dwindling pool of primary care physicians struggle to care for growing patient loads. 20

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2014 Job Market Perspectives

The aging population will increase demand for attorneys in elder law, estate planning and trusts, while additional attorneys will be required for the corresponding growth of the healthcare sector. The Affordable Care Act and modifications to 401(k) plans will require more attorneys specializing in labor and employment law, especially benefits specialists who can counsel corporations through the new regulations. The employment outlook for paralegals and legal assistants is favorable as jobs are projected to grow by 18% over the next decade, slightly faster than the average for all occupations. Those formally trained with a certificate in paralegal studies or an associate’s degree will have the competitive edge in the job market.

Leisure and Hospitality

Manufacturing

Nov. 2012 – Nov. 2013 change in workforce...................... +422,000 jobs

Nov. 2012 – Nov. 2013 change in workforce......................... +76,000 jobs

Number of American workers............................................................. 14 million

Number of American workers............................................................. 12 million

Regions in demand.................................................................................................. All

Regions in demand......................................................Midwest, South & West

Unemployment rate........................................................... (as of Nov. 2013) 9%

Unemployment rate....................................................... (as of Nov. 2013) 6.2%

Leisure and Hospitality Jobs Forecast In 2013, the leisure and hospitality industry added an average of 28,000 jobs a month, with the accommodations and food service segment leading the way. Travel is projected to grow with the highest gain in bookings in the luxury hotel segment, but with strong increases in less-expensive chain segments as well. The industry is facing stiffer competition and informed consumers with access to search-engine reviews, comparison sites and online booking.

Manufacturing Jobs Forecast As automation replaces workers, employment for lower-skilled employees will continue to decline. In fact, 12 of the top 30 occupations expected to experience the greatest decline in employment are a variety of production occupations in diminishing industries. On the other hand, demand for highly skilled workers will increase. Many employers currently report shortages of qualified, trained production workers for available positions. Thousands of positions will become available over the next 10 years due to the retirement of Baby Boomers; however, these jobs will require knowledge of team production, computer-controlled machinery and robotics, as well as certifications from trade organizations or schools. Other jobs are returning to the US from Asia due to the rise of the middle class in China and corresponding increases in wages.

It’s expected that people will continue to eat out and order carry-out meals, but the settings will shift from fast food and casual restaurants to other venues with prepared meals like grocery stores. Job opportunities for food preparation workers are projected to grow at about the average rate because of the high turnover in these jobs each year and the high volume of jobs in this large sector. Although employment for waiters and waitresses is expected to grow more slowly than the average, opportunities will still be available due to the large number of workers who leave their jobs every year. However, competition will be strong for wait staff seeking employment at upscale restaurants. Lodging managers with degrees in hotel or hospitality management will have a distinct advantage in the market, but can also expect intense competition for jobs.

Gains in the healthcare industry will have a positive effect on healthcare-related manufacturing, including pharmaceutical and medical technology. Employment is also expected to grow in fabricated metal product manufacturing, plastics and rubber products manufacturing, and wood product manufacturing.





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Where the Jobs Are

2014 Jobs Forecast Professional and Business Services

Retail Trade

Nov. 2012 – Nov. 2013 change in workforce...................... +494,000 jobs

Nov. 2012 – Nov. 2013 change in workforce...................... +323,000 jobs

Number of American workers......................................................... 18.7 million

Number of American workers......................................................... 15.3 million

Regions in demand.................................................................................................. All

Regions in demand.................................................................................................. All

Unemployment rate...................................................... (as of Nov. 2013) 7.5%

Unemployment rate...........................................(as of Nov. 2013) 7.0%

Professional and Business Services Jobs Forecast With over 18 million workers, this is the largest occupational group and the one expected to add the most new jobs (2.3 million) over the next eight years. In addition to accounting and engineering services, this large sector includes 1.6 million employees in computer systems and design.

Retail Trade Jobs Forecast Employment in the large retail sector is projected to increase by 12% over the next eight years, due to an anticipated rise in personal consumption. The availability of jobs will be high due to the turnover associated with the retail trade. Gains in this sector were widespread, although clothing and clothing accessories stores lost jobs. Despite gains in Internet shopping, for the short term most retail shopping will continue to take place in brick-and-mortar stores, so the demand for salespersons will continue.

Computer technology job growth in this sector will primarily occur in positions that support social networking, mobile technology, big data and predictive analytics, cloud computing and the healthcare industry. Software engineering, a job that frequently lands at or near the top of the “best jobs” lists and registers one of the lowest unemployment rates at 1.8%, is projected to grow by 30% over the next few years. E-commerce will continue to grow, thereby increasing demand for web developers, especially those familiar with multiple programming languages and digital multimedia tools. Because computer hacking and other cyberattacks continue to plague business and government entities alike, jobs in information security will also be in demand in the coming years. Information security analyst positions are expected to increase by 22% by 2020. Within the administrative and support services, positions such as cargo and freight agents, receptionists and customer service representatives are projected to grow faster than average. Other jobs, such as desktop publishers and postal service workers, are declining sharply (-15% and -26% respectively). 22

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2014 Job Market Perspectives

While department store jobs will probably continue to decline, other retail job growth will take place in warehouse clubs and supercenters, which are projected to grow 51% by 2020. In other retail segments, employment in automobile dealerships and in food and beverage stores will continue to increase. Retailers can’t rely on old business strategies to gain new customers and retain existing ones. Instead, they must move into big data by monitoring customers’ social media activities, analyzing customers’ in-store traffic patterns and soliciting feedback on store quality and employee performance.

Telecommunications

Temporary Services

Nov. 2012 – Nov. 2013 change in workforce............................+2,700 jobs

Nov. 2012 - Nov. 2013 change in workforce........................ +153,000 jobs

Number of American workers............................................................... 856,800

Number of American workers........................................................... 2.5 million

Regions in demand.................................................................................................. All

Regions in demand.................................................................................................. All

Unemployment rate....................................................... (as of Nov. 2013) 7.1% Telecommunications Jobs Forecast As consumers move from residential land lines to wireless phones, the demand for some positions in the telecom sector will decline while others will grow—primarily in the areas of Internet connections, cable television and voice over Internet (VoIP) networks. Technologies such as video on demand require high data transfer rates in telecom systems, thereby increasing demand for central office, PBX installers and head-end technicians to upgrade switches and routers. While the job opportunities for workers who build, maintain and upgrade these networks will increase, telecom maintenance occupations may decline as equipment becomes stronger, more reliable and easier to repair. The volume of employment opportunities will vary by area of expertise. But one factor seems certain: In order to remain marketable, telecommunications employees must invest in postsecondary education and/or formal training in areas such as computer programming, software development, laser and fiber optic technology, and wireless technology.

Temporary Services Jobs Forecast Hiring managers seeking a quick and cost-effective means to augment their workforce frequently turn to temporary services, resulting in an increase of 153,000 jobs in this sector over the past year. Among job seekers, temporary jobs are now considered a viable option for gaining work experience and possibly transitioning into a permanent position. High-demand temporary jobs have traditionally included those in finance, administrative support, healthcare, engineering and information technology. But the temporary services segment is expected to continue growing as manufacturers increasingly draw from a temporary workforce in an effort to control expenses and adapt to production fluctuations. Other organizations are turning to temporary staffing for attorneys, providing valuable experience to new law school graduates unable to secure permanent employment.





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End Notes 1. Current Employment Statistics Highlights, December 2013 http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ceshighlights.pdf

11. “The Region’s Indebted Nations Face a Longer Road to Recovery,” Moody’s Analytics Euro Zone Outlook, October 8, 2013

19. Mike Obel, “Africa Poised for Unprecedented, Long-Term Economic Growth: Seven Drivers That Could Transform Africa into the World’s Economic Powerhouse,” International Business Times

3. “Worldwide, 13% of Employees Are Engaged at Work,” Gallup.com, October 8, 2013

http://www.moodysanalytics.com/~/media/ Homepage/News/2013/2013-15-08-Euro-ZoneOutlook-The-Regions-Indebted-Nations-Face-aLonger-Road-to-Recovery.ashx

http://www.gallup.com/poll/165269/worldwide-employees-engaged-work.aspx

12. Yukhananov, “IMF Say Global Economy Healthier, But Still Weak.”

20. “Internet Impacting Economic Development Across Africa,” Business Standard, November 21, 2013

4. “Most Metro Areas Show Strong Annual Home-Price Growth,” National Association of Realtors®, November 6, 2013

13. Michael S. Arnold, “With Western Demand Weak, Asia Relies More on Itself,” Wall Street Journal, November 6, 2013

http://www.business-standard.com/article/ news-ians/internet-impacting-economic-development-across-africa-report-113112100556_1.html

http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2013/11/ most-metro-areas-show-strong-annual-homeprice-growth

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/11/06/ with-western-demand-weak-asia-relies-moreon-itself/

21. “Transitions and Tensions,” International Monetary Fund.

5. “Here Are the October 2013 ‘Big Eight’ US Auto Sales Numbers,” International Business Times, November 6, 2013

14. “Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India – 2014 Beyond the Middle-Income Trap,” Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, October 8, 2013

2. Ibid.

http://www.ibtimes.com/here-are-october-2013big-eight-us-auto-sales-numbers-gm-ford-chrysler-toyota-honda-nissan-1451010 6. Ibid. 7. Hannah Groch-Begley, “WSJ’s Stephen Moore: Devastating Sequestration Cuts Are a ‘Success’ Free of ‘Negative Consequences,’ MediaMatters, August 12, 2013

http://www.oecd.org/site/seao/ 15. “East Asia Pacific Economic Update - Rebuilding Policy Buffers, Reinvigorating Growth,” The World Bank, October 2013 http://www.worldbank.org/en/region/eap/publication/east-asia-pacific-economic-update-october-2013

http://mediamatters.org/blog/2013/08/12/ wsjs-stephen-moore-devastating-sequestration-cu/195354

16. Glenn Somerville and Gillian B. White, “Our Economic Outlook for 2014: 2.6% GDP Growth,” Kiplinger, October 11, 2013

8. Michael Lindenberger, “Economists: Obamacare’s Impact on Jobs Likely to Be Minimal,” Dallas Morning News, October 12, 2013

http://www.kiplinger.com/article/business/T019C021-S005-kiplinger-gdp-forecast-for-2014.html

http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/ headlines/20131011-economists-obamacares-impact-on-jobs-likely-to-be-minimal.ece 9. “Global Economic Outlook 2013, September 2013 Update,” McKinsey Global Institute http://www.conference-board.org/data/ globaloutlook.cfm 10. Anna Yukhananov, “IMF Say Global Economy Healthier, But Still Weak,” Reuters, October 8, 2013 http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/08/ us-imf-economy-idUSBRE9970FT20131008

17. Brad Plumer, “The Shale Gas Boom Won’t Do Much for Climate Change, But It Will Make Us a Bit Richer,” Washington Post, October 21, 2013 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/10/21/the-shale-gas-boom-wontdo-much-for-climate-change-but-it-will-makeus-a-bit-richer/ 18. “Transitions and Tensions,” World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund World Economic and Financial Surveys, October 2013 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ weo/2013/02/index.htm

http://www.ibtimes.com/africa-poised-unprecedented-long-term-economic-growth-seven-drivers-could-transform-africa-worlds

22. Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 6, 2013 http://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm#latest23. Janet Lorin, “University Enrollment Declines Following Years of Record Growth,” Bloomberg, September 3, 2013 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0903/university-enrollment-declines-following-years-of-record-growth.html 24. Richard Dobbs, Anu Madgavkar, Dominic Barton, Eric Labaye, James Manyika, Charles Roxburgh, Susan Lund, Siddarth Madhav, “The World at Work: Jobs, Pay, and Skills for 3.5 Billion People,” McKinsey Global Institute, June 2012 http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/employment_and_growth/the_world_at_work 25. Michael Morgenstern, “The Future Is Now: 15 Innovations to Watch For,” The Chronicle of Higher Education, July 22, 2013 http://chronicle.com/article/The-Future-IsNow-15/140479 26. “The Trouble with Online College,” The New York Times, February 18, 2013 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/19/opinion/ the-trouble-with-online-college.html?_r=2& 27. Mary Lorenz, “Two in Five Employers Use Social Media to Screen Candidates,” The Hiring Site powered by CareerBuilder, July 1, 2013 http://thehiringsite.careerbuilder. com/2013/07/01/two-in-five-employers-use-social-media-to-screen-candidates 28. Ibid. 29. “Occupational Outlook Handbook,” Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/ooh

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2014 Job Market Perspectives

The Path Forward Although 2013 will be remembered as a challenging year of government crises and weaker than expected economic growth, through it all the economy continued to rebound, the stock market hit record highs and unemployment dropped to its lowest levels in five years. Looking ahead, the economy is poised for stronger business growth, hiring and expansion, with the GDP predicted to reach 3% in 2014—a sign of economic strength. We expect that companies will begin to invest their large cash stockpiles in expansion, leading to increased optimism and more robust creation of jobs.





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About Lee Hecht Harrison (LHH)

Lee Hecht Harrison (www.lhh.com) is the global talent mobility leader. We connect people to jobs through innovative career transition services and help individuals improve performance through career and leadership development. LHH assists organizations in supporting restructuring efforts, developing leaders at all levels, engaging and retaining critical talent, and maintaining productivity through change—helping organizations increase profitability by maximizing their return on investment in developing people, while assisting individuals to achieve their full potential.

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